NIFTY : Prediction levels and plan for 19-Dec-2024

3 dni temu

Intro: Previous Day's Plan vs Actual
In yesterday's chart, we observed Nifty approaching a deep retracement zone (113% level at 24,098) and tested the must-try zone for Wave C completion as highlighted. Price remained within the "No Trade Zone" for a considerable period, indicating indecision and sideways movement. The sideways yellow trend was respected, with no significant breakout.

Now, for 19-Dec-2024, we will plan the opening scenarios considering a gap opening of 100+ points in either direction, or a flat opening, using key levels for action.

Trading Scenarios for 19-Dec-2024

1. Gap Up Opening (100+ points):
   If Nifty opens above the Opening Resistance for Retracement at 24,359, this signals initial strength.
   - Monitor the first 30 minutes for price action confirmation. If Nifty sustains above 24,359, we may see a move towards the Last Intraday Resistance at 24,488 (red level).
   - Aggressive traders can look for long opportunities with a stop loss placed at 24,227 (blue level) on an hourly candle-close basis.
   - However, failure to sustain above 24,359 can lead to a retracement back towards the No Trade Zone (24,169).
   
   
   - Action Plan:
   - If the price closes an hourly candle above **24,359**, initiate longs with **targets** at **24,488**.
   - If it fails to hold above, avoid fresh trades and wait for price to return to the retracement zone.
   
2. Flat Opening:
   If Nifty opens near the No Trade Zone (24,169 - 24,227), caution is required. A sideways price action is likely within this range.
   - Price needs to break out from this "No Trade Zone" to give clear direction.
   - Upside breakout above 24,227 could lead to a retracement test towards 24,359.
   - Downside breakdown below 24,169 can trigger a test of the Wave C correction zone at 24,098 - 24,029.
   
   
   - Action Plan:
   - Avoid trading in the "No Trade Zone" to minimize risk.
   - For longs, wait for a confirmed breakout above **24,227**.
   - For shorts, wait for a breakdown below **24,169**, targeting **24,098** first and then **24,029**.
   
3. Gap Down Opening (100+ points):
   If Nifty opens near or below the Must Try Zone at Wave C completion (24,098 - 24,029), it signals a bearish start.
   - Watch for signs of support formation in this range. A strong bounce can lead to a reversal back toward 24,169.
   - However, if Nifty fails to hold this zone and breaks 24,029, further downside towards 23,600 could unfold (red trend).
   
   
   - Action Plan:
   - Look for buying opportunities if price holds above **24,029** with confirmation on the hourly chart.
   - If **24,029** breaks decisively, initiate short positions targeting **23,600**, with a stop loss above **24,098**.
   Risk Management Tips for Options Traders:
   
   Always use stop losses based on an hourly candle close to manage risks.
   Avoid trading in uncertain zones (e.g., "No Trade Zone") where the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable.
   For options, consider deploying spreads (e.g., Bull Call Spread or Bear Put Spread) to limit risk during gap openings.
   Avoid chasing trades in case of a sharp gap-up or gap-down; let the price stabilize for 30 minutes.
   Summary and Conclusion:
   
   Nifty remains at a critical juncture near the Wave C correction completion zone.
   Key Levels to Watch:
   Upside: 24,227, 24,359, 24,488
   Downside: 24,169, 24,098, 24,029, and 23,600
   Focus on breakouts or breakdowns for actionable trades, avoiding sideways moves.
   The yellow trend reflects sideways movement, green indicates a bullish reversal, and red shows bearish continuation.
   
   Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Traders should conduct their analysis or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.