Nifty50, SPX500 and GER30 all were in sync till May 2018 after which Ger30 ( DAX ) showed divergence and started to fall !! The next in line to fall is SPX500 and is about to sync with GER30 on downside but the Nifty50 is now showing divergence against both these and is resisting the fall. Now if global markets fall the EM will also toe its line, so with December Expiry coming to end we might see the carnage in Nifty50 in Jan 19.
Keep In Mind :-
1. FED is reducing its balance sheet -- in short reverse of QE
2. Crude Oil falling
3. Trade Barriers
All these factors point to one thing the growth is slowing down across the globe. If crude continues to fall to levels of 30 $ in coming next 6 months, be prepared for a recession and this time it might stay for a longer term than in last 20 years of QE based Central Banks Credit growth.
Keep In Mind :-
1. FED is reducing its balance sheet -- in short reverse of QE
2. Crude Oil falling
3. Trade Barriers
All these factors point to one thing the growth is slowing down across the globe. If crude continues to fall to levels of 30 $ in coming next 6 months, be prepared for a recession and this time it might stay for a longer term than in last 20 years of QE based Central Banks Credit growth.
