05 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty
I had a feeling that we are nearing a top after seeing the price action on 03 Jul. The 4th Jul session was also cementing that thought. And today's session till 14.35 was giving me lot of confidence to take a short position.
But what happened from 14.40 to close, esp. 15.500 to 15.10 was simply unbelievable. Nifty rose 0.42% ~ 81.3pts to end the day flat at 0.05% gains. The strength in that recovery is now putting a big question mark on my interim top call. Although we did not take out the ATH today - that momentum would have crushed the hopes of many bears.
Last day we discussed how we require strong CE shorting to start a downward slide, unfortunately that was not visible today.
1hr TF
Ever since we had that breakout from the 18880 levels, N50 has appreciated another 3% ~ 569pts. Either the rally is over extending or the bullish sentiment is so strong to wipe out the bears.
It is quite easy for N50 to scale up as there are no more friction points, similarly its much easier to breakdown as we dont have support points too. The last 30mts of today's trade has given confusing signals now. I have marked a trading band between 19304 to 19415 (length of the 1st hour candle on 04 Jul). Till this band is not broken - I have decided not to take any bets.
But what happened from 14.40 to close, esp. 15.500 to 15.10 was simply unbelievable. Nifty rose 0.42% ~ 81.3pts to end the day flat at 0.05% gains. The strength in that recovery is now putting a big question mark on my interim top call. Although we did not take out the ATH today - that momentum would have crushed the hopes of many bears.
Last day we discussed how we require strong CE shorting to start a downward slide, unfortunately that was not visible today.
1hr TF
Ever since we had that breakout from the 18880 levels, N50 has appreciated another 3% ~ 569pts. Either the rally is over extending or the bullish sentiment is so strong to wipe out the bears.
It is quite easy for N50 to scale up as there are no more friction points, similarly its much easier to breakdown as we dont have support points too. The last 30mts of today's trade has given confusing signals now. I have marked a trading band between 19304 to 19415 (length of the 1st hour candle on 04 Jul). Till this band is not broken - I have decided not to take any bets.
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