Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21
IN SUMMARY
OHLC
17,657.95
17,781.75
17,608.15
17,711.30
Close = -37.3 / -0.21%
H-L = 174 points
VIX 18.84 / +1.61%
FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative.
SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points
Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way.
It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700.
The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday.
NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
SBI
18.00
HDFC
31.00
JSW STEEL
13.00
HDFC BANK
27.00
IOC
12.00
RELIANCE
21.00
POWERGRID
10.00
ICICI BANK
16.00
SUN PHARMA
10.00
KOTAK BANK
11.00
63.00
106.00
Lifter - Draggers = -43
POSITIVES
NIFTY managed to close above 17700.
NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions.
NEGATIVES
When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices.
All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry.
VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
This remains as it is --
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h.
However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close.
In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700.
Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green.
Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
29-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
IN SUMMARY
OHLC
17,657.95
17,781.75
17,608.15
17,711.30
Close = -37.3 / -0.21%
H-L = 174 points
VIX 18.84 / +1.61%
FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative.
SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points
Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way.
It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700.
The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday.
NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
SBI
18.00
HDFC
31.00
JSW STEEL
13.00
HDFC BANK
27.00
IOC
12.00
RELIANCE
21.00
POWERGRID
10.00
ICICI BANK
16.00
SUN PHARMA
10.00
KOTAK BANK
11.00
63.00
106.00
Lifter - Draggers = -43
POSITIVES
NIFTY managed to close above 17700.
NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions.
NEGATIVES
When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices.
All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry.
VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
This remains as it is --
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h.
However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close.
In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700.
Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green.
Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
29-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
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