14 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty | CPI comes at 7.44% RBI missed?
After the trades on Friday, I modified my stance to 100% bearish. What other boon could I ask for when we had the opening 5mts better than expected? “The first target to take out will be the recent swing low of 19296. The next support comes at 19190.’ As soon as 19300 was taken out in the 2nd candle, my conviction for a bear rally was growing.
But that did not last long enough, the bears were unable to push down the prices further and this hesitation gave the confidence for bulls to make their move. There were 2 news/events that should have tipped the scale to the bear’s favor
The first news was speculative, it does not give any indication of the health of Adani’s finances (atleast for the general public). Auditors could resign for a number of reasons. Whereas the second news was more authoritative as it came from the CEO himself. The final impact ADANIENT down -3.29% and HDFCBK down -0.49% (not at all a big impact).
The bulk of the recovery was by RELIANCE, INFY and HUL and I am quite sure 99% of the traders would not have guessed Nifty will close in the green today. I had sights on 19500 CE at Rs19 levels which ended at Rs40 today. If I had any clue of the power of bulls, I would have grabbed on to this opportunity!
At the end of the day, what got formed is a classic double bottom at the support level of 19311 and a descending bearish trend line. If it goes like this - it becomes a falling wedge pattern which is not at all good for the bears.
Having said that, there is one piece of comforting news for the bears. The retail CPI inflation comes in at 7.44% a 15 month high. Guessing RBI made a big mistake of not hiking the interest rate last thursday.
I continue to remain bearish as of now, if the support level is getting broken in the next session - it's an advantage. If not the wedge (triangle) will catch up and it could even mean a reversal of trends.
But that did not last long enough, the bears were unable to push down the prices further and this hesitation gave the confidence for bulls to make their move. There were 2 news/events that should have tipped the scale to the bear’s favor
- Deloitte quitting Adani’s audits
- Net Interest margin could take a hit, HDFC bank
The first news was speculative, it does not give any indication of the health of Adani’s finances (atleast for the general public). Auditors could resign for a number of reasons. Whereas the second news was more authoritative as it came from the CEO himself. The final impact ADANIENT down -3.29% and HDFCBK down -0.49% (not at all a big impact).
The bulk of the recovery was by RELIANCE, INFY and HUL and I am quite sure 99% of the traders would not have guessed Nifty will close in the green today. I had sights on 19500 CE at Rs19 levels which ended at Rs40 today. If I had any clue of the power of bulls, I would have grabbed on to this opportunity!
At the end of the day, what got formed is a classic double bottom at the support level of 19311 and a descending bearish trend line. If it goes like this - it becomes a falling wedge pattern which is not at all good for the bears.
Having said that, there is one piece of comforting news for the bears. The retail CPI inflation comes in at 7.44% a 15 month high. Guessing RBI made a big mistake of not hiking the interest rate last thursday.
I continue to remain bearish as of now, if the support level is getting broken in the next session - it's an advantage. If not the wedge (triangle) will catch up and it could even mean a reversal of trends.
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