NatGas Reversion to 200-hr Mean

3 out of the last 4 times price has reached the 13% envelope of the 200-hr simple moving average on the hourly there have been significant pullbacks ranging from -.5 to -1.618 retracements. 1 out of the 4 times the price reached the 21% envelope (purple). The absolute dollar amount relative to the 200-hr average is shown by the indicator at the bottom. It reveals a similar finding to the envelope overlays. The two possible price trajectories, based on the assumption that the price will continue to respect these envelopes, are shown shown in green and red starting at the current price level. The bullish trajectory reaches approximately 6.719 whereas the bearish outcome reaches approximately 6.275 then retreats down to below 5.600, or to the 200-hr average. I will be looking for confirmation using other indicators before going short.