Need a natty bounce?
Followers know i've been tracking a diagonal to potentially end the decline in natural gas. This diagonal is still very much intact and may be close to resolution. As you can see c=a in purple will likely tag the lower trend line of this diagonal which is also a key fib in the larger move. The bounce we get from this area will be suspect unless we get well above the red 4 area on the chart. Resistance here could very well send us to new lows below 2.0 and potentially a major buying opportunity at that time. Also note the potential for the decline in purple to be an impulsive 1,2 count which could potentially send us immediately lower; but this seems unlikely given the fairly established diagonal abc structure thus far.
Komentarz:
close up without momentum indicators taking up 1/3 of the screen
Komentarz:
looking closely at the drop from todays report spike (B), we may just fall shy of the target before we rally
Komentarz:
we're here, this is C = A, we can always extend a bit lower towards A x 1.382, lets see how we bounce
Komentarz:
a little less thrilled with the idea at the moment as we have under thrown the diagonal, but only slightly so far
Komentarz:
but the micro count does work well for the end of a C wave provided that this holds up, if we fall much further then i will abandon this idea until the pattern clears up further, presumably the purple 1,2 count would be the first one to track to a potential bottom (which really shouldnt be too far away depending on your comfort levels)
Komentarz:
the bad news is we went lower and ruined the diagonal, the good news is that the larger structure now allows for higher, likely over 3.0 this winter in a more direct fashion which i may explain in another post, in the meantime bulls should take heart that this count with the standard fib extensions will likely mark the LOW and a major reversal point and the worst is just about behind us
Komentarz:
and seconds after the last post it immediately extended to the 2.618 extension lol, the bounce from there is impressive but could still just be a 4th wave