NASDAQ coiling ahead of downtrend resistance
In the lead-up to tomorrow FOMC meeting, and driven by various dovish news reports, the interest rate market is pricing in 40bp of cuts —raising the odds considerably of a 50bp rate cut tomorrow.
The basis for this is it would be improbable for the #Fed to allow pricing to move so far towards a 50bp cut only to let markets down with a 25bp cut, risking a repeat of the vicious sell-off viewed in early August.
The #NASDAQ100 's impressive rebound from the early September 18,400 low has it up nudging up against downtrend resistance at 19,600/620, which comes from the July high of 20,690. A sustained break above 19,600/20 would signal that the correction from the 20,690 high is complete and that the uptrend has resumed towards 20,690 and then 21,500.
Conversely, a failure to see a sustained break above 19,600/20 would warn that the correction is set for another leg lower towards the 200-day moving average at 18,200.
The basis for this is it would be improbable for the #Fed to allow pricing to move so far towards a 50bp cut only to let markets down with a 25bp cut, risking a repeat of the vicious sell-off viewed in early August.
The #NASDAQ100 's impressive rebound from the early September 18,400 low has it up nudging up against downtrend resistance at 19,600/620, which comes from the July high of 20,690. A sustained break above 19,600/20 would signal that the correction from the 20,690 high is complete and that the uptrend has resumed towards 20,690 and then 21,500.
Conversely, a failure to see a sustained break above 19,600/20 would warn that the correction is set for another leg lower towards the 200-day moving average at 18,200.
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