2024-05-28 - a daily price action after hour update - oil
comment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that 76 was rejected often enough and bulls are favored to at least test the top of the channel around 78.8. They poked enough today and finally broke above. I expect 84 over the next 1-2 weeks. Measured move would bring us to 84.3.
current market cycle: Bear trend broken - Still inside bigger triangle (form of trading range)
key levels: 76 - 84
bull case: Got my clear confirmation today and will look for long entries over the next days. Bulls probably expect a pull-back to maybe the daily 20ema (79) to form a channel). 1h 20ema is currently holding nicely.
Invalid below 78.4.
bear case: Bears stepped aside since Friday US session and we are in a strong bull trend inside this bigger trading range. Bears will try to sell new highs for small scalps. Best they could hope for is moving sideways around 80.
short term: Up - 84 expected over the next 1-2 weeks.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83.
trade of the day: Just buy anywhere. Look which 20ema is holding and buy near it.
current market cycle: Bear trend broken - Still inside bigger triangle (form of trading range)
key levels: 76 - 84
bull case: Got my clear confirmation today and will look for long entries over the next days. Bulls probably expect a pull-back to maybe the daily 20ema (79) to form a channel). 1h 20ema is currently holding nicely.
Invalid below 78.4.
bear case: Bears stepped aside since Friday US session and we are in a strong bull trend inside this bigger trading range. Bears will try to sell new highs for small scalps. Best they could hope for is moving sideways around 80.
short term: Up - 84 expected over the next 1-2 weeks.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83.
trade of the day: Just buy anywhere. Look which 20ema is holding and buy near it.
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