#202503 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oil
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 4th consecutive bullish weekly bar but the tails above are getting bigger (weekly chart). The volume is also increasing, which could be a sign of more participants thinking it’s a good time to scale into shorts and out of longs. If there would be a run on oil because macro reason xyz, volume would have been bigger already is what I reckon. Does not matter much though, because bears need to do more before we can turn more bearish. First decent pull-back will be bought, so it will most likely be better to look for longs after a pull-back than to try and pick the top.
current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend
key levels: 77 - 81
bull case: Bulls are in full control and want to break above the 2024-04 high 80.03. We are close enough to expect market to get there soon. Problem for the bulls is, this rally is parabolic and unsustainable. The last time we printed 5 consecutive bull bars on the weekly chart was mid of 2023. For now we can’t expect to see bigger bearish price action because bulls have been making money buying every small dip.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears have made the first lower high which now looks like an ugly head & shoulders. I think the odds of this breaking down for a measured move to sub 72 are very low. Much more likely is that bears would exit fast on another push up and try again to keep it below 80. The current lower bull channel line runs through 75ish and it’s reasonable to expect a bigger pull-back over the next 1-2 weeks.
Invalidation is above 80.
short term: Bullish for 80 and then looking to short for a bigger pull-back down to the bull channel. A strong close above 80 would change my mind.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential bear targets.
comment: 4th consecutive bullish weekly bar but the tails above are getting bigger (weekly chart). The volume is also increasing, which could be a sign of more participants thinking it’s a good time to scale into shorts and out of longs. If there would be a run on oil because macro reason xyz, volume would have been bigger already is what I reckon. Does not matter much though, because bears need to do more before we can turn more bearish. First decent pull-back will be bought, so it will most likely be better to look for longs after a pull-back than to try and pick the top.
current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend
key levels: 77 - 81
bull case: Bulls are in full control and want to break above the 2024-04 high 80.03. We are close enough to expect market to get there soon. Problem for the bulls is, this rally is parabolic and unsustainable. The last time we printed 5 consecutive bull bars on the weekly chart was mid of 2023. For now we can’t expect to see bigger bearish price action because bulls have been making money buying every small dip.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears have made the first lower high which now looks like an ugly head & shoulders. I think the odds of this breaking down for a measured move to sub 72 are very low. Much more likely is that bears would exit fast on another push up and try again to keep it below 80. The current lower bull channel line runs through 75ish and it’s reasonable to expect a bigger pull-back over the next 1-2 weeks.
Invalidation is above 80.
short term: Bullish for 80 and then looking to short for a bigger pull-back down to the bull channel. A strong close above 80 would change my mind.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential bear targets.
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.