Gold (XAU/USD) 1H

Trading Idea for Gold (XAU/USD)

Context:

Gold has just completed a liquidity grab, forming a double top structure, followed by a sharp bearish candle. This suggests a potential exhaustion of the recent bullish rally. Based on the current structure and price action, the upcoming week could enter a corrective phase, especially after the strong upward momentum we’ve seen.

Key Levels & Observations:

- Liquidity Grab: The double top above the $2,860 level indicates a trap for buyers, potentially signaling a reversal.
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): A bearish imbalance near the $2,860-$2,855 zone could act as resistance if retested.
- OTE Zone: The optimal trade entry (OTE) zone aligns with the bullish trendline and the 50% retracement level near $2,830-$2,820. This could be a significant area for a bullish reaction after the corrective move.
- Bearish Momentum: The strong bearish candle hints at sellers gaining control, at least in the short term.

Forecast:

- Monday Bias: Bearish, targeting the FVG near $2,840-$2,830.
- Weekly Outlook: A corrective pullback towards the OTE zone ($2,830-$2,820) is likely, followed by a potential bounce off the trendline for the continuation of the long-term bullish trend.

Trading Plan:

- Short Setup:

Entry: $2,860 (FVG zone)
Stop Loss: Above $2,865 (double top invalidation)
Take Profit: $2,830 (OTE zone)

- Long Setup (if conditions align):

Entry: $2,830-$2,820 (OTE + bullish confluence with the trendline)
Stop Loss: Below $2,810
Take Profit: $2,860 and above

- Risk Management: Ensure proper position sizing, as corrective phases can be volatile. Monitor key news events that may influence gold, such as macroeconomic data or central bank announcements.