H&S Forming

TP 12'950 or thereabouts. Bearish divergence will start appearing after DAX reaches 12'600/12'700.

Zlecenie aktywne:

Adjusted the neckline.... wishful thinking?

Komentarz:

Bear in mind that we've had a death cross on the day chart but am still expecting upward motion towards 12'653, possibly 12'783 after which it is expected to go down hard and fast towards 10'700-10'500... or even towards 9'160.

Komentarz:

Still very much in play...

Zlecenie aktywne:

Getting close to the sell area now!
10'652 is 50% retracement of the down from 13'601 to 11'703
200 MA is sat at 12'652
12'651 is an important Ichimoku level

Komentarz:

Zlecenie aktywne:

Let's see whether this indeed turns out to be a SHS....

Zlecenie aktywne:

Gravestone doji on the month chart...

Zlecenie aktywne:

still in play...

Zlecenie aktywne:

Still very much in play. 12'235 38.2%. Is it going to hold?

Zlecenie aktywne:

Largely no change in this plan... Notice the MACD...

Zlecenie aktywne:

...and the Week chart...

Zlecenie aktywne:

Overnight, DAX bounced off the 200EMA line on the weekly chart...

Zlecenie aktywne:

10777 may be the lucky number...

Zlecenie aktywne:

Scary times... There won't be a turnaround until we see some Bullish Standard Divergence which IMHO cannot be expected until we have reached Support Level 2 as shown on the chart. So therefore, continue to short the highs. I trade the 15M charts and when price reaches around the EMA 200 mark, I go short. SL is generally set at EMA 300. Good luck and let's hope this bear market ends soon!

Komentarz:

The VIX will receive support at the 200 EMA level (black line) enabling the DAX to reach around 11'050 on Monday where it will find resistance. From there one can expect a drop of around 1'200 pips...

Zlecenie aktywne:

Ooops, forgot to show the VIX chart...

Komentarz:

...and that's hidden bullish of course for the VIX, not bearish. The DAX will be bearish.

Zlecenie aktywne:

Why my bearish prediction may be wrong... based on the 1M chart.

Komentarz:

Since August 2001, every monthly close below the 50 EMA line also hit the 200 EMA line. Worth noting probably!

Zlecenie aktywne:

Possible scenario for the next few weeks...
Note that the midpoint of the body of the previous week's candle is reached with a probability of 70%... In those weeks that this is NOT the case, average retracement is 81 pips. For all weeks the average retracement is 146 pips. (data since 14th February 2016)
Anyway, here is what I think may occur...