Long GBPUSD after right shoulder formation
There were already many failed attempts to break the 1.3188-1.3193 resistance to go further to the upside. The larger perspective is still bearish, but we have a very nice opportunity for a correction wave.
My idea of a long is CONDITIONAL to a right shoulder formed as drawn, on the basis that this is an inverted head and shoulders formation. Waiting for the right shoulder, higher low, would mitigate risk against falling knife scenario. We can then put very small stop loss, perhaps just 30 pips below the "head" - just to guard a weekend gap down. I'm looking for the head to form in this area because the 1.3080 region is putting up very strong resistance against sellers. If big players are trying to manipulate the market to purchase GBP against USD for cheap, they are probably strongly buying up dips at these areas to form a base.
Should the sellers not continue to sell, which would result in the right shoulder NOT forming, can enter long above 1.3115.
I expect alot of the bullish wave to take place next week rather than today, because "bears" will be the tone for the current weekly candle. If there isn't a big weekend gap down, I suggest to correct the SL to the base of the "head" as soon as we're in profit at the beginning of next week.
Immediate upside target is the resistance area of 1.3180. When it hits that, there could be a correction down to as low as 1.3110 area, but more modestly we're looking at 1.3140. Further on, we're looking at 1.3250-1.3270. Then, I expect further consolidation before going further to the 1.34 region. We'll have to re-evaluate then.
Things that could quickly speed this up would be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, though that does not seem like it would happen in the next few days because table discussions have not been good. At the same time it seems that the Russian army is not attacking efficiently and at some point they may decide to cut loss due to fuel, weaponry, and manpower losses. Interesting to note that Meta (Facebook, Instagram) has temporarily allowed hate speech against Russia.
MY OWN OPINIONS AND NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE
My idea of a long is CONDITIONAL to a right shoulder formed as drawn, on the basis that this is an inverted head and shoulders formation. Waiting for the right shoulder, higher low, would mitigate risk against falling knife scenario. We can then put very small stop loss, perhaps just 30 pips below the "head" - just to guard a weekend gap down. I'm looking for the head to form in this area because the 1.3080 region is putting up very strong resistance against sellers. If big players are trying to manipulate the market to purchase GBP against USD for cheap, they are probably strongly buying up dips at these areas to form a base.
Should the sellers not continue to sell, which would result in the right shoulder NOT forming, can enter long above 1.3115.
I expect alot of the bullish wave to take place next week rather than today, because "bears" will be the tone for the current weekly candle. If there isn't a big weekend gap down, I suggest to correct the SL to the base of the "head" as soon as we're in profit at the beginning of next week.
Immediate upside target is the resistance area of 1.3180. When it hits that, there could be a correction down to as low as 1.3110 area, but more modestly we're looking at 1.3140. Further on, we're looking at 1.3250-1.3270. Then, I expect further consolidation before going further to the 1.34 region. We'll have to re-evaluate then.
Things that could quickly speed this up would be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, though that does not seem like it would happen in the next few days because table discussions have not been good. At the same time it seems that the Russian army is not attacking efficiently and at some point they may decide to cut loss due to fuel, weaponry, and manpower losses. Interesting to note that Meta (Facebook, Instagram) has temporarily allowed hate speech against Russia.
MY OWN OPINIONS AND NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE
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