UK inflation report to provide fresh GBP/USD setups
GBP/USD would likely be a lot higher heading into today’s UK inflation report if not for the Ukraine headlines yesterday. The bullish pin coming a day after a bullish engulfing candle says as much, reflective of plenty of willing buyers below 1.2613.
With RSI (14) breaking its downtrend and MACD looking like it may soon flick higher, momentum also looks to be in the early stages of turning, adding weight to the price signals over the past two sessions. While the near-term bias is bullish, entry for potential longs will be determined by the UK inflation report due out shortly.
The annual headline rate is expected to accelerate to 2.2% from 1.7%, although traders may want to put more weight on the core and services figures given noise created by base effects. The former is seen easing a tenth to 3.1% while services is tipped to remain sticky at 4.9%, reflecting the impact of continued strength in wages growth.
However, domestic factors have not been highly influential over GBP/USD moves recently, as demonstrated by the extremely tight inverse relationship with US benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields over the past fortnight.
If the relationship persists, use the reaction to the report to evaluate the merit of setups.
If we see a dip towards 1.2613, you could buy with a tight stop beneath for protection. 1.2720 would be the initial target with 1.2803 the next after that. Another option would be to wait to see whether the price can break above 1.2720, allowing for longs to be established with a stop below. 1.2083/200DMA would be the first target. Beyond, the uptrend dating back to May is also on the radar. It’s found around 1.2930 today.
If the price were to break and hold below 1.2613, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
With RSI (14) breaking its downtrend and MACD looking like it may soon flick higher, momentum also looks to be in the early stages of turning, adding weight to the price signals over the past two sessions. While the near-term bias is bullish, entry for potential longs will be determined by the UK inflation report due out shortly.
The annual headline rate is expected to accelerate to 2.2% from 1.7%, although traders may want to put more weight on the core and services figures given noise created by base effects. The former is seen easing a tenth to 3.1% while services is tipped to remain sticky at 4.9%, reflecting the impact of continued strength in wages growth.
However, domestic factors have not been highly influential over GBP/USD moves recently, as demonstrated by the extremely tight inverse relationship with US benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields over the past fortnight.
If the relationship persists, use the reaction to the report to evaluate the merit of setups.
If we see a dip towards 1.2613, you could buy with a tight stop beneath for protection. 1.2720 would be the initial target with 1.2803 the next after that. Another option would be to wait to see whether the price can break above 1.2720, allowing for longs to be established with a stop below. 1.2083/200DMA would be the first target. Beyond, the uptrend dating back to May is also on the radar. It’s found around 1.2930 today.
If the price were to break and hold below 1.2613, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
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