GBPUSD Potential bullish reversal coming?

11 maj 2023

Fundamental Analysis

GBP/USD market movers

• The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, recently spoke about how the inflation readings for April are expected to show a significant drop as the effects of higher fuel and food prices from last year are no longer in the equation. Although there are signs that inflation is easing, Bailey also mentioned that the secondary effects of high inflation are still present and that there are potential risks for inflation in the future.
  
  
• Bank of England's recent policy meeting went as expected with no surprises. The BoE decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, which was the same decision made at the previous meeting. This decision was voted on by a 7-2 majority.
  
  
• In the UK, inflation is currently at 10.1%, which is more than double the 4.9% reading in the US. The core inflation rates in both countries are closer, with the UK at 6.2% and the US at 5.5%. However, this suggests that the UK will likely continue to raise interest rates after the Federal Reserve (Fed) has stopped, which may benefit the Pound Sterling over the US Dollar as global investors tend to prefer currencies with higher interest rates to invest their money.
  
  
• Looking at the US Dollar and the potential risks associated with the US debt ceiling default. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned that a failure to raise the debt ceiling could result in an "economic and financial catastrophe." This could have an impact on the US Dollar moving forward.
  
  
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, with both the annual headline and core figures coming in slightly below expectations. Additionally, the US Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected, with 264K new first-time unemployment claims filed.
  

Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, from our point of view, GBP/USD remains in a long-term uptrend, advantaging long over short holders even if price was to break below the TL, which would means that the current correction will be longer and deeper before breaking the Highs of May 2022, please see chart analysis above for details.