GBP/USD Pullback expected before reaching 1.24

3 lis 2023

Analysis of GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD is on the rise towards the 1.2400 level to conclude a trading week that has seen the pair mostly fluctuate around the averages. After the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data came in well below expectations, the British Pound (GBP) has seen a 1.6% increase from Friday's opening bids near 1.2190, and the GBP/USD is up almost 2.5% from the week's lows of 1.2095. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 150,000 in October versus the forecast of 180,000. The US NFP figures fell short of expectations, marking the worst headline figure in nearly three years. The US added 150,000 new jobs in October, missing the market forecast of 180,000 and well below September's figure, which was revised downward from the initial print of 336,000.

The failure to meet US employment targets is dragging the US Dollar (USD) lower across the market as investors shift towards risk assets, despite the deteriorating US labor data, which is counterintuitively inspiring investors to move out of safe havens. Weaker US economic data could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reconsider interest rate decisions, as investors look for signs that the Fed may accelerate the program of potential rate cuts.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD:

The Sterling's ascent driven by the NFP data is pushing the GBP/USD straight through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), aiming directly for the 1.2400 level and preparing to challenge the 200-day SMA, which is currently moving sideways from 1.2435. GBP/USD has recently oscillated between 1.2300 and 1.2100, and a bearish fallback would see the pair sliding towards multi-month lows around the 1.2000 major level.

I personally expect a pullback to around 1.2160, where the price could then reverse to head towards 1.24. Let me know your thoughts, and happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.