H1 demand held beautifully - next stop 1.25?
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play as we head into the closing stages of April. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191). Traders will also note price is currently trading in the shape of a doji indecision candle.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Price action on the daily timeframe currently trades in no man’s land, hovering between a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns closely with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2643, and demand from 1.2212/1.2075.
Sustained bidding from 1.2247 (April 21 low) could lead to price action forming the D-leg to an ABCD approach (orange) that completes around 1.2729.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.2622/1.2517 remains a dominant fixture on the H4 timeframe, threatening the possibility of moves to demand at 1.2297/1.2350 and 1.2147/1.2257.
H1 timeframe:
In Wednesday’s analysis, 1.24 was stated as a possible support, with a whipsaw of the level into demand at 1.2379/1.2393 expected. As you can see, price did as anticipated, aided by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), and has since rallied more than 70 pips.
Traders long the said demand likely have eyes on 1.25 as the next upside target, with a break exposing nearby supply posted at 1.2526/1.2511, an area that’s capped upside since mid-April.
Structures of Interest:
Traders long this market will likely be looking to take profits around 1.25.
A fakeout north of 1.25 into H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511 may be of interest to sellers, particularly if we close back beneath 1.25 in strong fashion. What’s also interesting is the H1 supply is seen glued to the lower boundary of daily supply at 1.2622/1.2517.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play as we head into the closing stages of April. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191). Traders will also note price is currently trading in the shape of a doji indecision candle.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Price action on the daily timeframe currently trades in no man’s land, hovering between a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns closely with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2643, and demand from 1.2212/1.2075.
Sustained bidding from 1.2247 (April 21 low) could lead to price action forming the D-leg to an ABCD approach (orange) that completes around 1.2729.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.2622/1.2517 remains a dominant fixture on the H4 timeframe, threatening the possibility of moves to demand at 1.2297/1.2350 and 1.2147/1.2257.
H1 timeframe:
In Wednesday’s analysis, 1.24 was stated as a possible support, with a whipsaw of the level into demand at 1.2379/1.2393 expected. As you can see, price did as anticipated, aided by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), and has since rallied more than 70 pips.
Traders long the said demand likely have eyes on 1.25 as the next upside target, with a break exposing nearby supply posted at 1.2526/1.2511, an area that’s capped upside since mid-April.
Structures of Interest:
Traders long this market will likely be looking to take profits around 1.25.
A fakeout north of 1.25 into H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511 may be of interest to sellers, particularly if we close back beneath 1.25 in strong fashion. What’s also interesting is the H1 supply is seen glued to the lower boundary of daily supply at 1.2622/1.2517.
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