GBP/USD Bearish Outlook – Technical & Fundamental Confluence
GBP/USD remains in a well-defined downtrend, respecting a descending channel and key resistance levels. The pair recently tested the upper boundary of the channel near 1.2609, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-day moving average, suggesting strong bearish rejection.
Technical Outlook:
• Price Action: GBP/USD has formed lower highs and lower lows, indicating sustained selling pressure.
• Trendline & Resistance: The pair remains below the long-term descending trendline, with 1.2609 acting as a major resistance zone.
• Indicators:
• RSI: Approaching overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
• MACD: Bearish momentum is building, suggesting potential downside continuation.
• Target Levels:
• Short-term support: 1.2330 – Break below this level could trigger further downside.
• Major target: 1.1835 – A measured move projection based on the channel pattern.
Fundamental Factors:
• BoE Dovish Stance: The Bank of England recently cut rates to 4.5%, citing economic concerns, contrasting with the Federal Reserve’s steady rate policy, which supports USD strength.
• UK Inflation Concerns: Inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% due to VAT increases and higher airfares, potentially complicating BoE’s policy direction.
• US Economic Strength: Strong US economic data, including GDP growth and resilient labor markets, further bolster the USD.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Potential US tariffs on UK exports could add additional downside pressure on GBP.
Trade Idea:
• Bias: Bearish
• Entry: Below 1.2330 on confirmed breakdown
• Target: 1.2099, with potential for 1.1835
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.2609 to invalidate the bearish structure
Conclusion:
GBP/USD remains under selling pressure both technically and fundamentally. A confirmed breakdown below 1.2330 could accelerate bearish momentum toward the next key support levels. Traders should watch for price action signals and remain cautious of any unexpected shifts in macroeconomic data.
Technical Outlook:
• Price Action: GBP/USD has formed lower highs and lower lows, indicating sustained selling pressure.
• Trendline & Resistance: The pair remains below the long-term descending trendline, with 1.2609 acting as a major resistance zone.
• Indicators:
• RSI: Approaching overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
• MACD: Bearish momentum is building, suggesting potential downside continuation.
• Target Levels:
• Short-term support: 1.2330 – Break below this level could trigger further downside.
• Major target: 1.1835 – A measured move projection based on the channel pattern.
Fundamental Factors:
• BoE Dovish Stance: The Bank of England recently cut rates to 4.5%, citing economic concerns, contrasting with the Federal Reserve’s steady rate policy, which supports USD strength.
• UK Inflation Concerns: Inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% due to VAT increases and higher airfares, potentially complicating BoE’s policy direction.
• US Economic Strength: Strong US economic data, including GDP growth and resilient labor markets, further bolster the USD.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Potential US tariffs on UK exports could add additional downside pressure on GBP.
Trade Idea:
• Bias: Bearish
• Entry: Below 1.2330 on confirmed breakdown
• Target: 1.2099, with potential for 1.1835
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.2609 to invalidate the bearish structure
Conclusion:
GBP/USD remains under selling pressure both technically and fundamentally. A confirmed breakdown below 1.2330 could accelerate bearish momentum toward the next key support levels. Traders should watch for price action signals and remain cautious of any unexpected shifts in macroeconomic data.
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.