#202430 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears took complete control of the market after the lower high 18927 which formed a perfect head & shoulders pattern. The Measured move down is around 17000 and I expect that price to be hit in 2024. Last bull trend line before the big one from 2020 & 2022 and I expect it to be broken over the next 1-3 weeks. The upcoming pullback is the most important part now because the height will determine the strength of the next bear leg and if this a new bear trend or not. If bulls get above18600 again, there is a decent chance we are still inside a big trading range. If bears keep it below the daily 20ema, we will most likely form a proper channel we can grind down over the next months.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged
key levels: small range 18000 / 18900
bull case: Bulls and bears alike knew the recent high at 18900 was a bad buy and they tried to save their bull case on Tuesday but once Wednesday came around and 18700ish was resistance the third time, they gave and we only produced lower highs since. Best bulls can hope for now is to keep it above 18000 and bounce at the weekly 20ema which is exactly right under Friday’s close and that the bull trend line from April will hold. Market expects a pullback and bulls want it to go above 18600, which increases the odds of this being a continuation of the triangle, rather than a new bear trend.
Invalidation is below 18147.
bear case: Bears are in full control and want a lower low below 18148 to break the bull trend line. The recent selling was strong enough for a second leg but I think a pullback is expected after Opex. Also very strong selling on much greater volume. Any pullback should stay below 18600.
Invalidation is above 18650/18700, but that is pure guesswork. Need to see a bounce first. In general, if a pullback goes beyond the 50% mark, it’s hard to argue for a strong bear trend.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 18857 and now we are at 18298. High of the week was 18889 and the low was 18274. Gave you 18500 and you got 18274. That’s 585 points from last Friday’s close. Hope you made some.
short term: Full bear mode. Will try to catch the bounces as good as one can but the big money will be made to the downside over the next months. Short term we will see a bounce that should stay below 18500/18600 and from there I expect another big leg down to 17800.
medium-long term: Time to update this section. I called for 17000 for couple of months now and I said, any short around or above 19000 is amazing. The highs held and now we will see how low we can get in 2024. 17100 is still my first bigger target and should be reached in 2024. At this point it does not make sense to call lower targets.
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
Update: Will post also some profit taking and adding to the position again. On Monday I plan to look for strength and take about half off and to add again around 18500 or higher.
Chart update: Be reminded, that I switched from dax cfd to dax futures.
Removed all the bullish lines except the two main trend lines. On from April and the one from 2020. Put text on the shs pattern and added a fat bear trend line from ath to the recent lower high because that’s the triangle we are currently in and about to find out of the bottom will hold.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week.
comment: Bears took complete control of the market after the lower high 18927 which formed a perfect head & shoulders pattern. The Measured move down is around 17000 and I expect that price to be hit in 2024. Last bull trend line before the big one from 2020 & 2022 and I expect it to be broken over the next 1-3 weeks. The upcoming pullback is the most important part now because the height will determine the strength of the next bear leg and if this a new bear trend or not. If bulls get above18600 again, there is a decent chance we are still inside a big trading range. If bears keep it below the daily 20ema, we will most likely form a proper channel we can grind down over the next months.
current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged
key levels: small range 18000 / 18900
bull case: Bulls and bears alike knew the recent high at 18900 was a bad buy and they tried to save their bull case on Tuesday but once Wednesday came around and 18700ish was resistance the third time, they gave and we only produced lower highs since. Best bulls can hope for now is to keep it above 18000 and bounce at the weekly 20ema which is exactly right under Friday’s close and that the bull trend line from April will hold. Market expects a pullback and bulls want it to go above 18600, which increases the odds of this being a continuation of the triangle, rather than a new bear trend.
Invalidation is below 18147.
bear case: Bears are in full control and want a lower low below 18148 to break the bull trend line. The recent selling was strong enough for a second leg but I think a pullback is expected after Opex. Also very strong selling on much greater volume. Any pullback should stay below 18600.
Invalidation is above 18650/18700, but that is pure guesswork. Need to see a bounce first. In general, if a pullback goes beyond the 50% mark, it’s hard to argue for a strong bear trend.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 18857 and now we are at 18298. High of the week was 18889 and the low was 18274. Gave you 18500 and you got 18274. That’s 585 points from last Friday’s close. Hope you made some.
short term: Full bear mode. Will try to catch the bounces as good as one can but the big money will be made to the downside over the next months. Short term we will see a bounce that should stay below 18500/18600 and from there I expect another big leg down to 17800.
medium-long term: Time to update this section. I called for 17000 for couple of months now and I said, any short around or above 19000 is amazing. The highs held and now we will see how low we can get in 2024. 17100 is still my first bigger target and should be reached in 2024. At this point it does not make sense to call lower targets.
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced.
Update: Will post also some profit taking and adding to the position again. On Monday I plan to look for strength and take about half off and to add again around 18500 or higher.
Chart update: Be reminded, that I switched from dax cfd to dax futures.
Removed all the bullish lines except the two main trend lines. On from April and the one from 2020. Put text on the shs pattern and added a fat bear trend line from ath to the recent lower high because that’s the triangle we are currently in and about to find out of the bottom will hold.
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