2024-07-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes moved mostly sideways and that’s good for the bears. Even decent or in line earnings could not take this rally further, instead we sold off into the close and broke the minor bull trend lines. For tomorrow I expect more downside price action to test the lows.
Commodities - Gold moved sideways inside the same range since Friday after the sell off. Market is trying to bottom but I don’t think bears are done. Wait for the next big breakout.
Oil - Watching Oil on lower tf is atrocious and be smarter than me. Clear down trend. Lower lows and lower highs. Got 2 decent bear channels downwards and right now the 1h 20ema is decent to short against. Any pullback should now stay below 80.
Bitcoin - First decent selling on the daily since last Wednesday. Bull trend line is broken but it was way too steep anyway. Bears need prices below 65000 to have a chance for more downside. If bulls buy the dip again, probably moon again to 700000+.
dax futures
comment: 18600 would need a huge reversal day tomorrow and get below 18400 for a chance of more downside over the next days. Bulls made it clear that this is the big triangle playing out first and not a new bear trend. My bearish thesis still holds as long as we stay below 18900. Just means we probably go sideways for longer. I expect tomorrow will be a big red bar on the daily chart. Close below 18450 would be good.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18900
bull case: Follow through buying by the bulls and they continued to stay above the 1h 20ema. Minor bull trend line also holding, so no reason to stop buying every dip. They now had 2 pushed up and a third one could get us to the big bear trend line from the ath. That’s the target for the bulls for tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 18560.
bear case: Bears need stronger consecutive bear bars below the 1h ema, for lower prices. Right now the best they can hope for is to stop the advance and maybe stay between 18600 - 18700. If they would be manage to generate strong selling below 18600, we can talk bear again. Bad stuff to trade currently. Trending trading range upwards.
Invalidation is above 18900.
short term: Yesterday I was neutral and will stay that way. Can see it go both ways again. Minor bull trend line needs to break and market has to trade strongly below 1h 20ema for this to turn bearish. Above 18700, odds favor bulls for 18770 or higher again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Tough. Any buy around 1h 20ema was good. Bulls made a 100+ ripper but bears quickly sold it, so you had to take profits and keep tighter stops.
overall market comment
Indexes moved mostly sideways and that’s good for the bears. Even decent or in line earnings could not take this rally further, instead we sold off into the close and broke the minor bull trend lines. For tomorrow I expect more downside price action to test the lows.
Commodities - Gold moved sideways inside the same range since Friday after the sell off. Market is trying to bottom but I don’t think bears are done. Wait for the next big breakout.
Oil - Watching Oil on lower tf is atrocious and be smarter than me. Clear down trend. Lower lows and lower highs. Got 2 decent bear channels downwards and right now the 1h 20ema is decent to short against. Any pullback should now stay below 80.
Bitcoin - First decent selling on the daily since last Wednesday. Bull trend line is broken but it was way too steep anyway. Bears need prices below 65000 to have a chance for more downside. If bulls buy the dip again, probably moon again to 700000+.
dax futures
comment: 18600 would need a huge reversal day tomorrow and get below 18400 for a chance of more downside over the next days. Bulls made it clear that this is the big triangle playing out first and not a new bear trend. My bearish thesis still holds as long as we stay below 18900. Just means we probably go sideways for longer. I expect tomorrow will be a big red bar on the daily chart. Close below 18450 would be good.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18900
bull case: Follow through buying by the bulls and they continued to stay above the 1h 20ema. Minor bull trend line also holding, so no reason to stop buying every dip. They now had 2 pushed up and a third one could get us to the big bear trend line from the ath. That’s the target for the bulls for tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 18560.
bear case: Bears need stronger consecutive bear bars below the 1h ema, for lower prices. Right now the best they can hope for is to stop the advance and maybe stay between 18600 - 18700. If they would be manage to generate strong selling below 18600, we can talk bear again. Bad stuff to trade currently. Trending trading range upwards.
Invalidation is above 18900.
short term: Yesterday I was neutral and will stay that way. Can see it go both ways again. Minor bull trend line needs to break and market has to trade strongly below 1h 20ema for this to turn bearish. Above 18700, odds favor bulls for 18770 or higher again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Tough. Any buy around 1h 20ema was good. Bulls made a 100+ ripper but bears quickly sold it, so you had to take profits and keep tighter stops.
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