Assessing Forex Dynamics: EUR/USD Analysis
📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. We're focusing on the EUR/USD pair, which shows the value of the Euro against the US Dollar. This analysis will help us understand whether the US or European economy is stronger.
🧩 To better compare these currencies, it's helpful to also consider the DXY chart. For a full DXY analysis, you can find the link in the description. In that analysis, I mentioned that the DXY is likely to trend downward in the long term because the interest rate has reached 5.5%, which is quite high. The US might soon need to start lowering interest rates. However, since the inflation target in the US is 2%, the interest rate could reach 6% to control the current 3.3% inflation and bring it down to 2%.
💶 On the other hand, the economic situation in Europe is better than in the US, with both better interest rates and lower inflation. The average interest rate in Europe is 3.75%, and the average inflation rate is 2.4%. So, if the US eventually begins to lower its interest rate, the EUR/USD could start moving upwards.
🔍 Let's look at the chart. In the weekly timeframe, we see a downtrend in the High Wave Cycle, which is currently undergoing a correction up to 0.618. In the Medium Wave Cycle, within the downtrend correction, there's an uptrend that, after reaching 0.618 of our larger cycle, entered a correction phase down to 0.5. Currently, in the Low Wave Cycle, we are ranging, and we need to see whether the HWC or MWC will dominate to determine the next market move.
🧲 In the LWC, there's also a descending trendline that has brought the price down to the middle of the range box, and now the price is at 1.06245. This trendline could start a bearish momentum, but since it formed within a range box, it's unreliable.
📉 If 1.06245 is broken, the price could move down to 1.05195. A break of 106.723 in the DXY could confirm this breakdown. If the 0.5 area, which overlaps with 1.05195, is broken, the price could move to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. However, since the HWC is bearish, the downtrend might be much more significant.
📈 If the trendline is broken to the upside, after the trigger, we can expect the price to move to the top of the range box. In the DXY, a break of 104.5 could be suitable for confirmation. The main long trigger is 1.10464. The first barrier for the price is 1.12015, overlapping with the 0.618 level, which might hold the price for a few weeks. But if this area is surpassed, the price could move to 1.16558.
🎲 Moving to the daily timeframe, there's a gently sloping ascending trendline supporting the price, and a compression has formed in recent days. There's a hidden static line, not immediately apparent, but I've marked it in black on the chart.
📈 For a long position, we can enter riskily upon breaking 1.07370, but as I mentioned, it's a risky position, so the risk taken should be less than usual. The next long trigger is 1.09023, and if this trigger breaks, we can move to 1.11055. The final long trigger is the break of the range box top at 1.11055.
📉 For a short position, we first need to wait for the ascending trendline to break and then for 1.06687 to break. In this case, we can move to 1.06136, the main trigger for breaking the trend. Breaking this support can take us to the bottom of the range box. The third short trigger is breaking the bottom of the range box at 1.04610.
📝In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is at a crucial juncture with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on key trigger levels. Keep an eye on economic indicators from both the US and Europe, and use strict risk management strategies to navigate the market.
🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in forex trading. Adhere to strict capital management principles, use stop-loss orders, and aim for an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a currency pair you'd like me to analyze next.
🧩 To better compare these currencies, it's helpful to also consider the DXY chart. For a full DXY analysis, you can find the link in the description. In that analysis, I mentioned that the DXY is likely to trend downward in the long term because the interest rate has reached 5.5%, which is quite high. The US might soon need to start lowering interest rates. However, since the inflation target in the US is 2%, the interest rate could reach 6% to control the current 3.3% inflation and bring it down to 2%.
💶 On the other hand, the economic situation in Europe is better than in the US, with both better interest rates and lower inflation. The average interest rate in Europe is 3.75%, and the average inflation rate is 2.4%. So, if the US eventually begins to lower its interest rate, the EUR/USD could start moving upwards.
🔍 Let's look at the chart. In the weekly timeframe, we see a downtrend in the High Wave Cycle, which is currently undergoing a correction up to 0.618. In the Medium Wave Cycle, within the downtrend correction, there's an uptrend that, after reaching 0.618 of our larger cycle, entered a correction phase down to 0.5. Currently, in the Low Wave Cycle, we are ranging, and we need to see whether the HWC or MWC will dominate to determine the next market move.
🧲 In the LWC, there's also a descending trendline that has brought the price down to the middle of the range box, and now the price is at 1.06245. This trendline could start a bearish momentum, but since it formed within a range box, it's unreliable.
📉 If 1.06245 is broken, the price could move down to 1.05195. A break of 106.723 in the DXY could confirm this breakdown. If the 0.5 area, which overlaps with 1.05195, is broken, the price could move to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. However, since the HWC is bearish, the downtrend might be much more significant.
📈 If the trendline is broken to the upside, after the trigger, we can expect the price to move to the top of the range box. In the DXY, a break of 104.5 could be suitable for confirmation. The main long trigger is 1.10464. The first barrier for the price is 1.12015, overlapping with the 0.618 level, which might hold the price for a few weeks. But if this area is surpassed, the price could move to 1.16558.
🎲 Moving to the daily timeframe, there's a gently sloping ascending trendline supporting the price, and a compression has formed in recent days. There's a hidden static line, not immediately apparent, but I've marked it in black on the chart.
📈 For a long position, we can enter riskily upon breaking 1.07370, but as I mentioned, it's a risky position, so the risk taken should be less than usual. The next long trigger is 1.09023, and if this trigger breaks, we can move to 1.11055. The final long trigger is the break of the range box top at 1.11055.
📉 For a short position, we first need to wait for the ascending trendline to break and then for 1.06687 to break. In this case, we can move to 1.06136, the main trigger for breaking the trend. Breaking this support can take us to the bottom of the range box. The third short trigger is breaking the bottom of the range box at 1.04610.
📝In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is at a crucial juncture with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on key trigger levels. Keep an eye on economic indicators from both the US and Europe, and use strict risk management strategies to navigate the market.
🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in forex trading. Adhere to strict capital management principles, use stop-loss orders, and aim for an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a currency pair you'd like me to analyze next.
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