Late update to this trade. As everyone knows by now, EURUSD took a couple big dives this week, continuing its downtrend channel.
For this trade, the next day saw close at 1.1388, 3 pips past my 50% target. I consider that a win for this set-up and analysis.
I use ATR trailing stops and manual exits. I don't use fixed take profit targets for orders. In this case, had I either 1) waited for my 100% TP at 1.1453, I wouldn't have reached it, or 2) automatically taken profit with an order at my 50% target, I would have missed the next day's weak extension up to 1.1420.
I also use these longer-term set-ups to guide my intraday trades and scalps. This set-up represents a composite sequence of many smaller trades.
For the 54 random people who saw this and the 2 people who graciously liked the set-up, if you don't use multi timeframe analysis, probably best to stick to the 50% targets and monitor price action carefully.