EUR/USD Short the rally, lose all your euro's!
Zaktualizowano
The EURO is so bearish .. it's unreal.
Fundamentally a currency reflects the state of the country. There is not much to gain confidence in the euro.
Since the crisis off 2009 the ECB lowered the intrest rate to combat the crisis. now, 10 years of failed policy later, we still have that 'emergency policy'.
Intrest rate are ZERO and many short term eu-country bonds are negative meaning you lose moneys on the investment.
Who will buy such bonds? The ECB has now over 40% of ALL EU Debt. There are just no buyers. so bearish..
There are no bailouts in the EU. only Bail-ins. This increases the risk to lose money and undermines confidence.
Many EU markets including france have not been able to reach a new all time high. de DOW had no problem with that.
The absolute and relative government debt is only rising. politicians have no intention of paying back the debt. As a belgian, I checked the government budget. In 50 years time 47 years there is a budget deficit. Only 3 years surplus. Terrible. This will be the same for most if not all off the EU countries.
When intrest rates rise, counter to the countless efforts off the ECB, and they will rise, the budget deficits will go trough the rough.
Genral rule: The weak fall first. And the KING in town is the Dollar. A rising dollar will put a huge burdon on government-denominated debt in dollars.
i could go on and on..
Technically:
The euro broke its Longest of uptrend. retested this and went back down.
Stuck in a downwards channel since 2008.
Confirmed downtrend by rejecting the 200 Montly MA + back down in the channel
So definitely LONG @DXY. Short Euro and other currencies.
It might be too soon to buy Chinese Yuan. Eventually the power shifts back to the east.
Fundamentally a currency reflects the state of the country. There is not much to gain confidence in the euro.
Since the crisis off 2009 the ECB lowered the intrest rate to combat the crisis. now, 10 years of failed policy later, we still have that 'emergency policy'.
Intrest rate are ZERO and many short term eu-country bonds are negative meaning you lose moneys on the investment.
Who will buy such bonds? The ECB has now over 40% of ALL EU Debt. There are just no buyers. so bearish..
There are no bailouts in the EU. only Bail-ins. This increases the risk to lose money and undermines confidence.
Many EU markets including france have not been able to reach a new all time high. de DOW had no problem with that.
The absolute and relative government debt is only rising. politicians have no intention of paying back the debt. As a belgian, I checked the government budget. In 50 years time 47 years there is a budget deficit. Only 3 years surplus. Terrible. This will be the same for most if not all off the EU countries.
When intrest rates rise, counter to the countless efforts off the ECB, and they will rise, the budget deficits will go trough the rough.
Genral rule: The weak fall first. And the KING in town is the Dollar. A rising dollar will put a huge burdon on government-denominated debt in dollars.
i could go on and on..
Technically:
The euro broke its Longest of uptrend. retested this and went back down.
Stuck in a downwards channel since 2008.
Confirmed downtrend by rejecting the 200 Montly MA + back down in the channel
So definitely LONG @DXY. Short Euro and other currencies.
It might be too soon to buy Chinese Yuan. Eventually the power shifts back to the east.
Uwaga
SELL ENTRY1.08 - 1.15
T1: 0.95
T2: 0.85
T3: breaking the 0.80'ish = in full meltdown mode
Uwaga
It hit the entry point off 1.15, amazing .. now back at 1.085
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