EURUSD: Is there a cross?
A Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Price index was standing at 2.5% in February, exactly in line with market expectations. Core PCE was up by 0.3% for the month, and 2.8% on a yearly basis. Final GDP growth rate for Q4 is 3.4% a bit higher from forecasted 3.2%, but lower from previous estimate of 4.9%. Durable Goods Orders in February were up by 1.1% on a monthly basis, which was above forecasted 1.1% and significant improvement from -6.9% posted previously. CB Consumer Confidence in March was standing at 104.7 a bit lower from forecasted 107. Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for March was 79.4 a bit higher from 76.5 expected by the market.
GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for April was standing at -27.4, in line with market expectations. Unemployment rate in Germany in March was 5.9%, and without a change from the previous month.
Markets continue to be supported by the Fed`s narrative over the possible rate cuts during the course of this year. In pre-holiday trading sessions, USD gained in value, where the highest level reached was at 1.077. The RSI dropped from the level of 58 down to 41 as of the week-end. The markets are clearly on the path toward the oversold market side, however, there is still space until this level is clearly reached. There has been an interesting development with moving averages. Namely, the MA50 managed to touch the MA200 counterpart, but it is still unclear on the charts whether the actual so-called dead-cross occurred. It will take a few more days until this formation clears up on the charts. If it clearly appears, it will suggest the potential for the trend change on the market.
Market optimism still holds, which is supportive for USD. At this point on charts, there are some indications that USD is headed toward the support line at 1.067. However, this refers to a higher time frame. For the week ahead, it could be expected that demand for USD continues, however, with a bit of volatility. The 1.08 support line is currently tested. If it holds, the eurusd might revert a bit toward the 1.085 levels, but there is no indication that price might again reach 1.09 level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Inflation rate preliminary for March in Germany and the Euro Zone, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, ISM Services PMI for March, Fed Chair Powell speech, Non-farm Payrolls for March, Unemployment Rate for March
GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for April was standing at -27.4, in line with market expectations. Unemployment rate in Germany in March was 5.9%, and without a change from the previous month.
Markets continue to be supported by the Fed`s narrative over the possible rate cuts during the course of this year. In pre-holiday trading sessions, USD gained in value, where the highest level reached was at 1.077. The RSI dropped from the level of 58 down to 41 as of the week-end. The markets are clearly on the path toward the oversold market side, however, there is still space until this level is clearly reached. There has been an interesting development with moving averages. Namely, the MA50 managed to touch the MA200 counterpart, but it is still unclear on the charts whether the actual so-called dead-cross occurred. It will take a few more days until this formation clears up on the charts. If it clearly appears, it will suggest the potential for the trend change on the market.
Market optimism still holds, which is supportive for USD. At this point on charts, there are some indications that USD is headed toward the support line at 1.067. However, this refers to a higher time frame. For the week ahead, it could be expected that demand for USD continues, however, with a bit of volatility. The 1.08 support line is currently tested. If it holds, the eurusd might revert a bit toward the 1.085 levels, but there is no indication that price might again reach 1.09 level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Inflation rate preliminary for March in Germany and the Euro Zone, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, ISM Services PMI for March, Fed Chair Powell speech, Non-farm Payrolls for March, Unemployment Rate for March
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