Geopolitical Jitters?
Zaktualizowano
We’ve seen the euro plummet this week but is the move an overreaction to the geopolitical events currently taking place in Europe? With the snap election in France and the rise of the far right in Germany along with the recent rate reduction from the ECB are we now starting to see the cracks emerge?
Personally, I think not. Whilst the EU may have its challenges ahead, so does every other economy, and I don’t really see the UK dodging any bullets in this regard. With flat gdp growth and rising unemployment I think the UK has its own challenges. Let’s not forget the expected change in government due on the 4th of July. Markets are anticipating a reduction in rates from the BoE as early as the summer and so I think this recent break of support is likely an overreaction.
Since q4 22’ we’ve seen the price moving within the confines of a large falling wedge (yellow) and at present it seems to have settled near the bottom end of the range. We are also starting to see divergences develop between price action and the indicators, with the daily starting to enter oversold territory. I expect support will be found anywhere between 0.8340 - 0.8400 (grey) but as most retail traders seem to be long I’m anticipating that the price may still have some more to drop before we see any meaningful rise.
That being said, I’m still reaffirming my stance on short-term long trades, maybe I’ve missed the boat already but I doubt it. In any case, I’d rather be right and miss it than enter and be wrong.
I’ll update if the price enters my poi but for now I’ll wait for confirmation.
Trade safe.
Personally, I think not. Whilst the EU may have its challenges ahead, so does every other economy, and I don’t really see the UK dodging any bullets in this regard. With flat gdp growth and rising unemployment I think the UK has its own challenges. Let’s not forget the expected change in government due on the 4th of July. Markets are anticipating a reduction in rates from the BoE as early as the summer and so I think this recent break of support is likely an overreaction.
Since q4 22’ we’ve seen the price moving within the confines of a large falling wedge (yellow) and at present it seems to have settled near the bottom end of the range. We are also starting to see divergences develop between price action and the indicators, with the daily starting to enter oversold territory. I expect support will be found anywhere between 0.8340 - 0.8400 (grey) but as most retail traders seem to be long I’m anticipating that the price may still have some more to drop before we see any meaningful rise.
That being said, I’m still reaffirming my stance on short-term long trades, maybe I’ve missed the boat already but I doubt it. In any case, I’d rather be right and miss it than enter and be wrong.
I’ll update if the price enters my poi but for now I’ll wait for confirmation.
Trade safe.
Uwaga
I’m a little apprehensive about the drop in global euro fx reserves and the proposed plan weaponise the frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. Mainly due to the unusually large amount of euros that make up Russian central bank reserves. If they retaliated by dumping euros I think we all know what that may result in. Nonetheless, my pending buy order was filled at 0.8398
Uwaga
TP hit at 0.8458 (previous high) - 60 pipsStill looking for short term longs, will update if my poi comes in range.
Uwaga
Long trade 2 opened at 0.8432Uwaga
Trade 2 to hit at 0.8492 - 60 pips.Total 120 pips so far but waiting for more long opportunities.
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