Bearish Scenario Planning

I believe there is a 65% chance that ETH pulls back to 3000. I believe this range we are seeing in my chart is a large trading range and the market will pinball around in this range because I believe there is more trading money in this market than investment money. I also think the market is unsure if this is a consolidation period after a long bull run, or a dip or still somewhat afraid of the 2018 bear market. I think there is a decent chance it even goes so far as to re-test the downtrend line from the top. That would be an amazing opportunity for us, and I think it's wise to take quantifiable risks to achieve a cash position to enable buying at that level if it were presented to us. I want to set a stop above the high of ETH a distance from that high equal to the size of the wick.