Probability Cone Projection for Ethereum, NOV 2021, NOV 2022....

16 gru 2020

95% of the time RETURNS are in the Random Walk of Brownian motion. There is only the Standard Deviation of Returns, and the Standard Deviation of Returns is VOLATILITY. What you are looking at is 3 Probability Cones projecting out that Random Walk within the 1st Standard Deviation at 68.3%, the 2nd Standard Deviation at 95.4%, and the 3rd Standard Deviation at 99.7%. What are Standard Deviations you ask, They are the Standard Deviations from the MEAN of Returns. The Cones are projecting out to NOV 2021 and NOV 2022 where I have placed 2 green vertical lines. You can see the prices in the black boxes and I'm going to focus on the upside PROBABILITIES. The 1st SD in NOV 2021 is at $581, the 2nd SD in NOV 2021 is at $2,515, and the 3rd SD in NOV 2021 is at $10,505. The 1st SD in NOV 2022 is at $858, the 2nd SD in NOV 2022 is at $5,478, and the 3rd SD in NOV 2022 is at $33,423. The bottom indicator is 1 of the 4 Moments that describe the Shape Features of the Distribution, the Mean of Returns. The other 3 Moments are VARIANCE, SKEWNESS, and KURTOSIS. You can see the Returns have crossed up the MEAN but at the moment, no pun intended, the Variance is moderate and Skewness along with Kurtosis are insignificant. When Skewness and Kurtosis are both Significant you can gain extreme profits in the direction of Skewness. That direction IMO and by what the Probabilities are telling me is Bullish, specifically because of the low Z-Score reading at the Moment, no pun intended once again LOL. While people on Twitter are pulling numbers out of their arse using senseless traditional TA thats been obsolete since the early 90's, drawing triangles and every other shape under the sun, drawing support and resistance lines on their charts trying to create some sort of voodoo whereas they think they are going to make profits when in reality they are going broke, smh. I'll say it 1 more time, there is only the Standard Deviations of Returns anything other than that and you are just guessing prices in a Random Brownian Market. Balipour and PIG are creating the best Indicators available today at least that are being shared publicly. Stay tuned more to come, CryptoCyclops out.....