Price is camped under a higher-timeframe supply/“weak-high” band. Trend remains constructive on the Weekly/Daily, but 4H/1H are coiling beneath resistance. I’m neutral into mid-week inflation data and will only engage on clean acceptance above the prior-high band or a rejection back into range.
Event stance: Two inflation releases hit 08:30 ET mid-week. I’ll be flat into the prints and wait for the first qualifying 15-minute close before arming anything
Key ES zones I’m trading around
6530–6545 — HTF supply / weak-high packet (primary take-profit for longs; fade candidate on rejection)
6518 — Breakout line (PMH/PWH band)
6500 — Round-number pivot
6460 ±2 — 1H equilibrium / prior LL shelf
6408–6415 — 4H HVN / equilibrium shelf
6360–6375 — 4H demand (strong-low)
Setup 1 — Breakout-Acceptance LONG
Trigger: 15m close > 6518, then two 5m bodies hold above.
Entry: 6520.5–6523.0 on the retest or break of bar-2 high.
Stop: tighter of (i) below the 15m trigger candle low, or (ii) below the last confirmed 5m swing; cap ≤ 6–8 pts.
• If neither option fits ≤ 8 pts from your fill, pass and wait for a cleaner micro HL.
TP1 (dynamic): first hard band (e.g., any workable print inside 6530–6545) that yields ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill (front-run 0.25–0.5 pt if 2.5R is tight).
TP2/TP3: 6550, then 6570; trail by 15m/30m closes.
• Disqualifiers: any 5m body back ≤ 6518 before TP1; visible liquidity wall ≤ 5 pts beyond trigger; news window.
Setup 2 — SRR Rejection SHORT (Sweep → Recapture → Reversal)
Trigger: Sweep 6518–6530, fail, then 15m bearish close < 6518.
Entry: 6515.0–6518.0 on the retest from below.
Stop: tighter of (i) above the 15m trigger candle high, or (ii) above the last confirmed 5m LH; cap ≤ 6–8 pts.
• If the correct structural stop is > 8 pts from your fill, skip until a micro LH tightens risk.
TP1 (dynamic): first hard band below that gives ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill—usually 6500; if 2.5R isn’t met to 6500, promote to 6482, then 6460.
TP2/TP3: 6482, then 6460 (extend toward 6410 if momentum).
• Disqualifiers: no 15m bearish confirmation; any 5m body ≥ 6518–6522 after entry (use your exact line); news window.
Event stance: Two inflation releases hit 08:30 ET mid-week. I’ll be flat into the prints and wait for the first qualifying 15-minute close before arming anything
Key ES zones I’m trading around
6530–6545 — HTF supply / weak-high packet (primary take-profit for longs; fade candidate on rejection)
6518 — Breakout line (PMH/PWH band)
6500 — Round-number pivot
6460 ±2 — 1H equilibrium / prior LL shelf
6408–6415 — 4H HVN / equilibrium shelf
6360–6375 — 4H demand (strong-low)
Setup 1 — Breakout-Acceptance LONG
Trigger: 15m close > 6518, then two 5m bodies hold above.
Entry: 6520.5–6523.0 on the retest or break of bar-2 high.
Stop: tighter of (i) below the 15m trigger candle low, or (ii) below the last confirmed 5m swing; cap ≤ 6–8 pts.
• If neither option fits ≤ 8 pts from your fill, pass and wait for a cleaner micro HL.
TP1 (dynamic): first hard band (e.g., any workable print inside 6530–6545) that yields ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill (front-run 0.25–0.5 pt if 2.5R is tight).
TP2/TP3: 6550, then 6570; trail by 15m/30m closes.
• Disqualifiers: any 5m body back ≤ 6518 before TP1; visible liquidity wall ≤ 5 pts beyond trigger; news window.
Setup 2 — SRR Rejection SHORT (Sweep → Recapture → Reversal)
Trigger: Sweep 6518–6530, fail, then 15m bearish close < 6518.
Entry: 6515.0–6518.0 on the retest from below.
Stop: tighter of (i) above the 15m trigger candle high, or (ii) above the last confirmed 5m LH; cap ≤ 6–8 pts.
• If the correct structural stop is > 8 pts from your fill, skip until a micro LH tightens risk.
TP1 (dynamic): first hard band below that gives ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill—usually 6500; if 2.5R isn’t met to 6500, promote to 6482, then 6460.
TP2/TP3: 6482, then 6460 (extend toward 6410 if momentum).
• Disqualifiers: no 15m bearish confirmation; any 5m body ≥ 6518–6522 after entry (use your exact line); news window.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
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If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.