SP500/SPY sell signal triggered 4-15-20

Sell signal finally came last night after 5 waves creeped up. I still expect we will have a double correction, although there's no way to know for sure. It doesn't seem right to me that we just fall hard again after such a small amount of time. Also, after a strong rally like this, there should be some who want to get in - a final 'buy the dip" crowd near 2450. Technically we got above the .5 fib, but not to the .618 - so the double correction would get us a little deeper. This makes sense to me right now, but nothing is certain. If we start falling hard, we may not stop for some time.

If something useful comes up I'll update, otherwise I'll let the analysis playout as is.

Good luck to all,

Sunship

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Blue trendline comes from 2018 and has been helping shape the correction the past few weeks.

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2800 may get tested before we fall further.

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we could push over 2800 by the close, 2808 looks like a nice target area. I will add shorts above 2800 if we get there

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still expecting that climb up overnight past 2800. Divergence on 15 minute chart may start playing out soon

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Good Morning, last night the 15 minute divergence turned into hourly bull divergence as we made a lower low. I take hourly divergence more seriously. Very possible we see one more wave up today/tomorrow to finished the week. Just keep it in mind if we get solidly over the red trendline. Jobs numbers at 8:30, but as usual the initial move means little to the overall direction the market will take today.

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possible path to the .618 fib

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jobless numbers are worse than expected, but "only" by 200,000+. Market right now doesn't seem to mind it.

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possible bull flag on futures

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market undecided - if we take out overnight lows on futures, we'll probably sell into the rest of the week

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red trendline on spy may get tested, would be important if it fails or succeeds to overtake it.

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some tech stocks possibly giving hints that we are going farther north - at least for short term - MSFT for example looks like it wants to fill the gap around 177-8

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SPY never made it back to the trendline and was stopped by the .5 fib - Bearish> day has been extremely choppy - not sure how it ends up.

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If we don't get above 279 on spy (over .658 fib), we might start impulsing down

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Broke trend on 5 minute chart, hard to say if that means anything. Under 275 would be much better for bears

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no volume in the selling at all, just a consolidation so far

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.658 fib hit, Bears have a chance if this can hold.

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no way of telling how this ends up, it's just a coin toss right now

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qqq also at it's .618 fib now, Nasdaq will decide the general market's fate. If we start making higher highs, we'll go higher into the end of the week I think.

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under 210 on the q's we may have the start of a downtrend. But they probably don't want to close in such an obvious way.

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The day and after hours ended bullish. I would expect a run at 2900 tonight. The red trendline is still resistance but I don't think it will be an issue. As I said earlier in the day, hourly bull divergence I take seriously and this is why. It wouldn't surprise me if we finish the week strong but Fridays are a wildcard.

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to the upper trendline, they may push it slightly past to get to the .618 fib.

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Starting to fall, but I don't trust it. If they can get it under the red trendline I'll add to shorts

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Good morning all - overnight looks corrective so far, but we'll have to see as the day develops. We either - retest the upper red trendline today/tomorrow or we go down to the purple trendline and see if it holds. Good luck all

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Oil crashing (again), usually a sign that the market will go lower, but this can be quite delayed. Oil started falling a lot sooner than the market in February.