11/13 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead
Recap
Last week, we saw a major squeeze to the 4418-24 upside target. Triggers for this squeeze were a failed breakdown of the 4377-85 level, which was then backtested and cleared on the second attempt, leading to a rapid squeeze higher. The largest, fastest moves often come from failed breakdowns, and this system is built around exploiting this edge. The RSI provided "fuel" for the squeeze, suggesting substantial energy already available for another rally.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down very slightly
💵 Dollar: Up very slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
Major Global Catalysts
Key Structures
The notable structures and levels from highest to lowest include: 4418-25, 4399, 4381-86, 4330-36, and 4302. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. They are not predictive, but will form the basis of level-to-level trading.
REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback.
Support Levels
4418-25 (major), 4412, 4399 (major), 4394, 4381-86 (major), 4367,4355, 4347 (major), 4331-36 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302 (major), 4290 (major), 4279, 4268, 4255-58 (major).
Resistance Levels
4434, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4460-63 (major), 4472, 4480-85 (major), 4497 (major), 4502, 4514 (major), 4525-28, 4534, 4540-43 (major).
Trading Plan
Today, the plan is to continue holding the long runner from high 4380s and allow for price discovery to unfold. If we begin a dip today, 4418-25 is first support down. If last Friday’s late-day breakout was a trap, we could sell quite hard starting today. If 4385 fails, we will sell deeply. All shorts are high risk knife catches.
Wrap Up
In summary, after last Friday's monster rally, it's time to step back and let price discovery reveal what is next. As long as 4418-24 holds, we can continue up the levels to 4439, 4445, 4460-63. If 4418-24 fails, we likely need to dip to 4399 at least. We get a proper leg down only when 4381-86 fails. The aim is not to catch every move, but to catch the portion of the daily moves that correspond to your edge and your pre-planned setups.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Last week, we saw a major squeeze to the 4418-24 upside target. Triggers for this squeeze were a failed breakdown of the 4377-85 level, which was then backtested and cleared on the second attempt, leading to a rapid squeeze higher. The largest, fastest moves often come from failed breakdowns, and this system is built around exploiting this edge. The RSI provided "fuel" for the squeeze, suggesting substantial energy already available for another rally.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down very slightly
💵 Dollar: Up very slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
Major Global Catalysts
- Moody’s changed the outlook on US government debt from stable to negative.
- The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and APEC Economic Leaders’ Week is underway in San Francisco all week.
Key Structures
The notable structures and levels from highest to lowest include: 4418-25, 4399, 4381-86, 4330-36, and 4302. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. They are not predictive, but will form the basis of level-to-level trading.
REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback.
Support Levels
4418-25 (major), 4412, 4399 (major), 4394, 4381-86 (major), 4367,4355, 4347 (major), 4331-36 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302 (major), 4290 (major), 4279, 4268, 4255-58 (major).
Resistance Levels
4434, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4460-63 (major), 4472, 4480-85 (major), 4497 (major), 4502, 4514 (major), 4525-28, 4534, 4540-43 (major).
Trading Plan
Today, the plan is to continue holding the long runner from high 4380s and allow for price discovery to unfold. If we begin a dip today, 4418-25 is first support down. If last Friday’s late-day breakout was a trap, we could sell quite hard starting today. If 4385 fails, we will sell deeply. All shorts are high risk knife catches.
Wrap Up
In summary, after last Friday's monster rally, it's time to step back and let price discovery reveal what is next. As long as 4418-24 holds, we can continue up the levels to 4439, 4445, 4460-63. If 4418-24 fails, we likely need to dip to 4399 at least. We get a proper leg down only when 4381-86 fails. The aim is not to catch every move, but to catch the portion of the daily moves that correspond to your edge and your pre-planned setups.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
