Another 48h - Dance On Downward Trendline In DXY Continues Today

2024/12/04
Another 48h - Dance On Downward Trendline In DXY Continues Today
“fiscal policy weakness in france and/or political weakness in germany!
but the eur is holding up truly well for that? dxy pretty weak? inst it?”



Michel Barnier increased pensions and reduced refugee aid on the orders of the right-wing extremists - and in the end he lost. Now France is again without a government. In December 2024, France is already in the second major government crisis of this year 2024, just before the eyes of the world. And that, like shortly before the Summer Olympics this summer and/or on the evening of the European elections, which Emmanuel Macron couldn't decide on his own - and called new elections. At the beginning of July 2024, no party achieved an absolute majority. And now, in December 2024, France will once again be without a government when hundreds of journalists and thousands of tourists travel to Paris at the weekend to admire the reopening of Notre-Dame, one of the most visited cathedrals in the world. Barnier actually did a lot to persuade Le Pen's group to stay. Until the very end, he responded to their demands, such as making less money available in the future budget to provide medical care for sick refugees. At their insistence, the pension should also be increased earlier than he planned - the Socialists and Greens also demanded this, but without success. But all these concessions to the right-wing extremists did not help to change their minds: Le Pen had apparently already made her decision to overthrow the government long ago. So that “Prime Minister Michel Barnier will leave office having served the shortest prime ministerial term in modern French history”, as Politico wrote. But French politics seems to be back where it was in July 2024, after the elections and shortly before the Summer Olympics: facing a stalemate as far as the political majority between left and right is concerned - a forced marriage of the so-called political center, if you will. They only agree so that the left, rather than the right, cannot govern in France.

• Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
  

This was the learning question of last week. And we have to say very clearly: "It was the bears!" Because on all 5 trading days of last week the bears recaptured the current territory in the DXY . Whether this is a medium-term trend reversal for the coming days, even weeks? Or was it just a week of consolidation to continue rising? That remains to be seen.

“The world order needs a major overhaul.”
George Soros

• Will the bulls recapture the terrain above 106.517 points again?
  
• Will the bears recapture the terrain under 104.447 points again?
  

The price action between 107.348 points (Annual Year High 2023 from 2023/10/03) and/or 106.517 points (1st Annual Year High 2024 from 2024/04/16) are groundbreaking. Last week the bears took over. Pathbreaking for this week, maybe even by the end of the year, after DXY closed at 105.782 points last weekend, is even the first annual high of 2024 and/or the upper trend line of the w trend reversal formation with 104.447 points from 2024/08/01. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 is continuing. While a price action back below into the w trend reversal formation should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .


The first downward trend line of the year was the focus of the price action in the DXY today, as it has been all week so far. Because the DXY was again trading above 106 points today. Traders and/or investors continue to keep the price action above 106 points so far this week. 106.121 from Monday, and/or 106,087 from Tuesday, inclusive even today on Wednesday with 106,090 points proving the importance of this downward trend zone. Because a price action below 106 points is likely to evaporate all the euphoria of last week and/or even inclusive this week. Yes, the US bears may even encourage the short-term trend to go even further downwards by the weekend. And that's what we can assuming. Ahead of the US unemployment rate and/or US consumer sentiment from UNI Michigan on Friday, this week.


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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