***This analysis is HEAVILY dependent on future macroeconomics and geopolitics and public statements, it could prove to be ENTIRELY wrong an hour from now based on what oil minister or nation X or Y says or does in an interview/meeting, etc.***
That being said, the technicals indicate to me that DRIP is going lower.
First, we have the head and shoulders (shown by the vertical red lines, the right shoulder is marked by a symmetrical triangle). This formation is incomplete, as we expect to see a very slight rebound in many of these cases - but volume MACD and RSI all support it.
Second, we can note the triangle coming off the right shoulder. While the majority (66-75%) of these will indicate continuation of a trend (in this case the trend was upward prior to the triangle) the remainder indicate reversals. We have clearly breached the triangle downward, which further supports the notion that DRIP will decline. Volume declines during the triangle and then spikes (massively) as the price breaches it. The breach occurs approximately where we would expect it to - 50-75% through.
That breach also declines through the support levels established at approx. 83 (highest pink horizontal line).
From this point on, the next strongest level of intermediate support is likely to be at about 46.86, where the fund traded from October through December.
Again, there may be a short term rebound before the head and shoulders is confirmed.
That being said, the technicals indicate to me that DRIP is going lower.
First, we have the head and shoulders (shown by the vertical red lines, the right shoulder is marked by a symmetrical triangle). This formation is incomplete, as we expect to see a very slight rebound in many of these cases - but volume MACD and RSI all support it.
Second, we can note the triangle coming off the right shoulder. While the majority (66-75%) of these will indicate continuation of a trend (in this case the trend was upward prior to the triangle) the remainder indicate reversals. We have clearly breached the triangle downward, which further supports the notion that DRIP will decline. Volume declines during the triangle and then spikes (massively) as the price breaches it. The breach occurs approximately where we would expect it to - 50-75% through.
That breach also declines through the support levels established at approx. 83 (highest pink horizontal line).
From this point on, the next strongest level of intermediate support is likely to be at about 46.86, where the fund traded from October through December.
Again, there may be a short term rebound before the head and shoulders is confirmed.