Long term on DJI looks poor

17 sty 2020

Due to reversion to mean (investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp) I find it highly probable that DJI will take significant long term losses. During the 2008 Crash the market dipped through the 200 monthly MA. Look to see this happen again as repo market is already seeing cash injections. Expect to see a bail in rather then a bail out this time. Here for example is some details on that cdic.ca/what-happens-in-a-failure/resolution-of-large-banks/resolution-tools-for-d-sibs/bail-in/. Many other governments have created similar plans. In chart images I gave a rough estimation of where 200 monthly moving average could be. Though it's likely no where near exact seeing the % drop to roughly that point renders small deviation mostly irrelevant. Also worth noting to see a risk reward of 2 generally minimally viable trade your looking at over $54000 price target. I see price target of $16500 to be much more probable. Admittedly I have a much better understanding of cryptocurrency then stocks though this chart seems apparent enough to be worth commenting.