CLVS: The end is nigh!
Zaktualizowano
Some people see a cup and handle. Some people see an inverse head and shoulders. I see a company running out of cash in November 2022.
In terms of T.A., it appears as if CLVS has finished a 5 wave impulsive move (500% pump) finishing at the 0.618 fib extension at $3.22, and is now in the middle of an ABC correction. At some point, I wonder if a 80% crash is corrective. If my wave count is correct, Wave C should finish between $0.8-$1.12 (Fibs). I'll be convinced this is a "correction" if there's a huge 5 wave impulsive move with volume to back it up. If not, I've probably got the wave count wrong, and CLVS has started a new impulsive move to the downside.
CLVS claims it has enough cash until February 2023. I assume that's Pat spamming the ATM, but is he really going to ATM at $1 for 4 more months of cash? Might as well file for Chapter 11 at that point. 650M debt may not seem like much, but for an unprofitable company only bringing in ~150M yearly in revenue, 650M debt is an impossible mountain to climb. I still say bankruptcy is still a possibility.
Concerning buyouts, biotech companies are getting swooped up left right and center. If there is a buyout, it's not going to be for double digits as some "doctors" claim. "Doctors" can point to a similar PARP inhibitor named Zejula owned by Tesaro that got bought for 5.1 billion. CLVS is currently worth 200 million, so I can see why people are drawing comparisons and giving wild price targets, but the macro environment is very different. There was no 2021-2022 biotech wipeout when Tesaro got bought out. If Pat is lucky, he'll get 800 million - 1 billion ($5-$7). Imo. I ain't a doctor or a finance expert :D.
Concerning a partnership for a cash infusion, it's possible, but why would anyone get into bed with Patrick Mahaffy, a known criminal fined by the SEC and FDA for feeding lung cancer patients poison.
Here are a few anomalies:
- No analyst appeared at yesterday's earnings call. Clovis Oncology led by Pat basically gave a monologue for 20 minutes.
- NorthStar getting into a supply agreement with CLVS. It's weird because why sign a supply agreement when CLVS won't exist in 2023.
- Despite many companies laying off employees bracing for a recession, CLVS is CONTINUING to HIRE people. No layoffs.
- Clovis Oncology website has been hacked going on 12 hours! (That is funny!)
This could be the greatest short or long. My personal position is a small amount of shares I bought at $2.8 back in December 2021. Never DCA'ed knowing CLVS's bankruptcy concerns, and November is imminent (Or February if you trust Pat).
CLVS is a clown show, and the stock has been trading like meme cryptocurrency with massive volatile swings. It's been really fun to follow. Sad to see all the drama end in a few months. Wishing all the longs the best :D.
In terms of T.A., it appears as if CLVS has finished a 5 wave impulsive move (500% pump) finishing at the 0.618 fib extension at $3.22, and is now in the middle of an ABC correction. At some point, I wonder if a 80% crash is corrective. If my wave count is correct, Wave C should finish between $0.8-$1.12 (Fibs). I'll be convinced this is a "correction" if there's a huge 5 wave impulsive move with volume to back it up. If not, I've probably got the wave count wrong, and CLVS has started a new impulsive move to the downside.
CLVS claims it has enough cash until February 2023. I assume that's Pat spamming the ATM, but is he really going to ATM at $1 for 4 more months of cash? Might as well file for Chapter 11 at that point. 650M debt may not seem like much, but for an unprofitable company only bringing in ~150M yearly in revenue, 650M debt is an impossible mountain to climb. I still say bankruptcy is still a possibility.
Concerning buyouts, biotech companies are getting swooped up left right and center. If there is a buyout, it's not going to be for double digits as some "doctors" claim. "Doctors" can point to a similar PARP inhibitor named Zejula owned by Tesaro that got bought for 5.1 billion. CLVS is currently worth 200 million, so I can see why people are drawing comparisons and giving wild price targets, but the macro environment is very different. There was no 2021-2022 biotech wipeout when Tesaro got bought out. If Pat is lucky, he'll get 800 million - 1 billion ($5-$7). Imo. I ain't a doctor or a finance expert :D.
Concerning a partnership for a cash infusion, it's possible, but why would anyone get into bed with Patrick Mahaffy, a known criminal fined by the SEC and FDA for feeding lung cancer patients poison.
Here are a few anomalies:
- No analyst appeared at yesterday's earnings call. Clovis Oncology led by Pat basically gave a monologue for 20 minutes.
- NorthStar getting into a supply agreement with CLVS. It's weird because why sign a supply agreement when CLVS won't exist in 2023.
- Despite many companies laying off employees bracing for a recession, CLVS is CONTINUING to HIRE people. No layoffs.
- Clovis Oncology website has been hacked going on 12 hours! (That is funny!)
This could be the greatest short or long. My personal position is a small amount of shares I bought at $2.8 back in December 2021. Never DCA'ed knowing CLVS's bankruptcy concerns, and November is imminent (Or February if you trust Pat).
CLVS is a clown show, and the stock has been trading like meme cryptocurrency with massive volatile swings. It's been really fun to follow. Sad to see all the drama end in a few months. Wishing all the longs the best :D.
Uwaga
CLVS has taught me that trading on hope is not a very good strategy because the fundamentals/financials that retail investors see are the fundamentals market makers want them to see. astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2022/lynparza-granted-fda-priority-review-for-propel.html
I'm not a doctor, but it sure looks like Lynparza is starting to eat Rubraca's lunch, and the FDA is certainly not helping Clovis. Pat may sound confident and cocky during earnings calls, but he's not fooling anyone. Clovis runs out of cash in November and we're almost at September. One analyst appeared in May's earnings call and zero analysts appeared in the latest earnings call. Clearly, no one is expecting Clovis to survive. BILLIONS of dollars have been thrown at PARP inhibitors and their development. 8.5B for Olaparib. 5.1B for Niraparib. Rubraca is the last PARP on the market that has not been gobbled up by a big Pharma company. Athena Mono was the best data set presented at ASCO 2022 with ovarian cancer patients taking Rubraca living more than twice as long (11.3-28.7 months). I can see why doctors are throwing wild price targets at CLVS (currently worth 200 million), but Pat has ZERO leverage. With SPX on the verge of AT LEAST a correction, Pat has no time, no leverage, and no cash to continue operations nor negotiations. The only glimmer of hope I see is the momentum and money flow on CLVS both forming higher lows.
Uwaga
Lol Clovis Oncology website hacked again! This is quality entertainment!Uwaga
Added at $1.12Uwaga
businesswire.com/news/home/20220911005019/en/Clovis-Oncology’s-Rubraca®-Rucaparib-as-First-Line-Maintenance-Treatment-Improves-Progression-Free-Survival-in-Women-with-Advanced-Ovarian-Cancer-Across-Disease-Risk-Subgroups/Honestly, which company issues a press release on a Sunday Morning? Atta boi Pat!
Uwaga
I'm not a doctor nor scientist, but when I see Rubraca and First Line Maintenance Treatment in the same sentence, I get a bit excited as that's where the billions of dollars in revenue stems from. That being said Rubraca has not be cleared by FDA for 1st line. Onto the charts, this is not a very convincing ABC correction. I'm leaning towards this was a Wave A. If I'm wrong and the ABC correction is finished, a 1:1 would land CLVS at $6.
Uwaga
businesswire.com/news/home/20220913005245/en/Price action not reflecting, but today was one of the most important days in Clovis Oncology's history with CLVS filing a sNDA for 1st line approval. Nice volume uptick. More bullish continuation imo. Held very well in today's sea of red
Uwaga
CLVS files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy on a Sunday
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