$CIVI going short - high confluence, good r:r setup
fundamentals: decent fundamentals for a short
sector: XLE at key level (resistance) and already overbought, good short
thesis: horizontal resistance play playing the bounce back down to support
buy confluences: horizontal resistance, no volume above, resistance trendline, poc below, 200MA below, rsi overbought, vortex bulls high bears low (both of them well above the minimum support line they need to be
to bounce), rsi bearish divergence, XLE sector over extended and at resistance - easy short
stop confuences: breaks horizontal resistance zone, breaks all relevant noise wicks, breaks resistance trendline, rsi and vortex will be hugely over extended, will have broken to aths (invalidates my thesis)
risk/reward: risk 1.5%, make 6.9% 1:4.5 conservatively - lovely R R - low risk, decent reward and can run much higher to 12%+ normally
trading plan-
stop: $59.67
tp: $54.73
validation strategy: maybe take profits at TP if happy and market's choppy, if not let it ride with manual trailing which placed as in profit, below key support as high as it wants - let winners run!
sector: XLE at key level (resistance) and already overbought, good short
thesis: horizontal resistance play playing the bounce back down to support
buy confluences: horizontal resistance, no volume above, resistance trendline, poc below, 200MA below, rsi overbought, vortex bulls high bears low (both of them well above the minimum support line they need to be
to bounce), rsi bearish divergence, XLE sector over extended and at resistance - easy short
stop confuences: breaks horizontal resistance zone, breaks all relevant noise wicks, breaks resistance trendline, rsi and vortex will be hugely over extended, will have broken to aths (invalidates my thesis)
risk/reward: risk 1.5%, make 6.9% 1:4.5 conservatively - lovely R R - low risk, decent reward and can run much higher to 12%+ normally
trading plan-
stop: $59.67
tp: $54.73
validation strategy: maybe take profits at TP if happy and market's choppy, if not let it ride with manual trailing which placed as in profit, below key support as high as it wants - let winners run!