$CHZUSDT Chiliz overextended?

1 wrz 2022

Chiliz CHZUSDT has had an awesome three digit percentage run up in the past few months and is in profit for anyone who bought in from May'22 onwards. The same cannot be said for most Cryptos in the same time period.

For nimble Crypto traders, analysing projects that have shown such incredible strength relative to the broader market is incredibly valuable as it highlights the constant opportunities to be found in Crypto trading, despite mainstream/retail narratives to the contrary.

We can see that Chiliz had a sharp divergence from Bitcoin (blue line), which it was previously tightly correlated with, starting 27 July '22.

Since May, as the major indexes (especially SPY) and inflation/FED hawkishness doom and gloom has spread to risk-on assets, pulling Bitcoin back into critical 20k USD levels, Chiliz instead continued an incredible run up, putting on a staggering +150% from the 27 July '22 trough to the peak 31 Aug '22. If you timed a long properly here, you made bank.



As we can see, the action even defied the VIX doom candles on 1 Aug and 22, 23 Aug. Chiliz has been partying! Go Chiliz! Lately it has been respecting the VIX's violent swings. Market conditions are currently volatile. We may see it come back into line with Bitcoin's ups and downs, and if this is the case, then the probability of support being tested increases.

Considering the larger market forces in play, there is elevated risk with overextended Cryptos, so be cautious about going long at these levels. Personally I would spread buy orders down at levels of support.

Obviously the best time to go long was at the beginning of the divergence back in May, as it smashed through overhead resistance as whales poured in, and we saw over 150% of gains in just a few months.

Could we head higher? Sure, but as we head into September with weak market conditions I think more probable is a retest of 0.16 (weak support) or 0.13-0.15 levels (stronger support).

Reducing this to the simplest broader market risk consideration: if Bitcoin stays beneath heavy resistance in September, in line with the major indexes, its gravitational pull will become stronger and stronger on Chiliz.

Zooming out for big picture/long term HODLERS, Chiliz fundamentals smell like success to me - a confluence of industry strength. Sports are on fire, they are focused on the spicy South American market, where crypto adoption is ahead of the curve, especially social apps and finally, aggressive collaboration with top brands like UFC, NFL, top Soccer teams, etcetera. Chiliz offers a blockchain interface between fans and their favourite teams, which creates a use-case for the CHZ token through socios.com. It's a perfectly good business model, a persistent niche due to sporting teams not having found effective ways to have immersive apps/digital experiences. Digital collectibles in conjunction with the blockchain can offer a better experience (if executed properly) - i.e. it's still confusing for "boomers", but all it takes for grass roots growth is someone showing them on a smartphone "how it works", hence CHZ may be a long term stayer if its socios.com product becomes a major player with fans and apps for their favourite sporting teams and digital collectibles.