BTC Descending Triangle

1 paź 2022

Unfortunately for the bulls, BTCUSD looks to be in a clear Descending Triangle pattern.

This is a significant bearish pattern, which breaks down more times than not. More so, it's a pattern that often acts as a pit stop during a downtrend (which we've had) headed to new lows. More info on the details on the pattern itself can be found here - dailyfx.com/education/technical-analysis-chart-patterns/descending-triangle.html

Pattern Price Targets:
The setup has two common methods of finding a price target:
1) 1.618 Fib Extension (My Personal Favorite!)
- For this method, use the fib tool to measure the high to low in the pattern and then look for the extension target.
- In this case, that target is around ~10k as can be see in the image.
- I prefer this method over the traditional measured move since that's how the 2018 bear market concluded. The measured move was missed entirely.
See here ->

2) Measured Moves
- For this method, find the price difference between the pattern's high and low and then project that beyond the lows (support).
- In this case, the target is around $4,750.
- Again, I don't put much faith in this pattern since price failed to reach the target back in the 2018 bitcoin bear market

Pattern Failure
As with any setup, REVERSALS (invalidations) are something to keep an eye on! Breaking up/out would be a powerful signal for a new sustained uptrend. More info on invalidations can be found here - thepatternsite.com/BustDescTriangles.html

Conclusion:
The probability/odds of a break down to at least ~10k is higher now than it has been in years (from a technical analysis perspective). The setup gives a higher % chance of breaking down than up. While there's always a chance the pattern breaks/fails, the odds are in the bear's favor.

Crystal ball
As the 2018 bear market concluded with a descending triangle breaking down to its 1.618 extension target, is it possible we see the same here?
Could a break down to ~10k mark the *BOTTOM* of the 2022 bear market?! Time will tell!