Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Key Levels and Strategy for Traders

Most Relevant Timeframe to Take a Position
• Short Term (2H, 4H): Highly volatile due to political announcements. Signals (MTFTI = red, HPI >80 on 2H) suggest caution. Scalping or short-term swing trading is possible, but with tight stop losses.
• Intermediate (12H): A good compromise. The trend still shows a bullish bias (Short MA > Long MA, Investor Satisfaction ~0.68), but the market remains nervous. A “bullish pullback” signal could emerge if the price clearly reclaims ~100k–101k.
• Long Term (1D): The underlying trend is not broken. For unleveraged investments, current levels (95–98k) may be attractive, provided a mental stop is monitored around 90–92k.

In practice, the 12H often provides a good balance for assessing whether a correction is ending. If 2H–4H bars seem too “noisy” and waiting for a 1D close is too long, 12H is a solid reference.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels
• ~95,000 $
• Auto AVWAP Low Convergence (2H and 4H at ~95–94.8k)
• Above this level, a lower support can be found at 12H AVWAP Low (~99.1k), but it would already be broken if price drops further.
• Pivot ~90,000 $
• Major psychological and technical level. A clear break would open the way for a deeper corrective structure toward 88k–85k.

Resistance Levels
• ~100–101k
• Zone around High AVWAP 2H, 4H (100k), Long MA 2H (101k), etc.
• Closing above 101k on the 4H–12H timeframe would be a strong bullish signal.
• ~104–105k
• Daily AVWAP High (105,465) and 12H (104,564)
• A probable major resistance. If broken, the daily trend could accelerate, with the next target at 108–110k.

Recommendations / Conclusion
1. Short-Term Caution (2H, 4H):
• Sentiment indicators on these lower timeframes (ISPD ~0.46, HPI = 83 on 2H) suggest possible intraday overbuying.
• Macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions trigger sudden volatility spikes.
2. Main Scenario:
• As long as BTC does not break decisively below 90–92k, the daily structure remains predominantly bullish. A clearer rebound could occur once 100–101k is reclaimed.
• If 90k breaks, a deeper correction would likely follow, forming a broader corrective structure.
3. Altcoins:
• Some have recently dropped -30%, and several weekly structures are still incomplete.
• Long-term investors may consider gradual accumulation on dips.
• For swing trading, it’s best to wait for volatility to settle and a clearer setup to appear.
4. Timeframe to Watch:
• The 12H timeframe seems “ideal” for confirming the end of the correction.
• The 1D timeframe remains relevant for a broader view.
• Also, keep an eye on macroeconomic announcements (tariff policies, geopolitical tensions), as these often trigger immediate volatile movements.
5. Fundamental Outlook:
• Potential BTC adoption by some U.S. states (Utah, Arizona) could support a medium/long-term bullish rebound.
• Inflation concerns in Europe, Fed decisions, and U.S.–China tensions remain key volatility drivers.

Conclusion: The Market is at a Crossroads
• On lower timeframes (2H–4H), the trend is more bearish/corrective (MTFTI red, low satisfaction).
• On higher timeframes (1D), the bullish trend remains intact as long as the 90k pivot holds.

Recommendations:
• For short-term traders: Caution, tight stops, no FOMO until a solid consolidation above 100–101k on 4H occurs.
• For medium/long-term investors: Gradual accumulation on ~95k retests or deeper dips toward 90k, while closely monitoring whether this major support holds.