Bitcoin Price Action: Key Supports, Resistances & Market Trends

Which Timeframe is Most Relevant for Taking a Position?

Short Term (2H / 4H):
• Signals react quickly to breakouts at 95k or 98k.
• The 4H HPI is already in the overbought zone (>90), indicating caution when buying a direct breakout, as a bull trap is possible.

Medium Timeframe (8H / 12H):
• The ISPD and Mason’s Line histograms are in the “moderate confidence” zone (0.5–0.7), reflecting an uptrend without excessive euphoria.
• This timeframe offers a good balance to monitor either a breakout above 98k or a potential pullback to 95k as a buying opportunity.

Long Term (1D):
• ISPD ~0.80 / Satisfaction ~0.59, indicating a relatively neutral-positive outlook.
• The daily timeframe confirms strong support around 79–80k, though this is far from the current price.

Conclusion:
• The 8H or 12H timeframe provides the best balance for watching either a support retest at 95k or a strong breakout above 98–99k before entering a position.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

Major Supports:
1. 95,900–96,000 USDT:
• Aligns with the Auto LoAVWAP (from 4H/2H) and significant liquidation clusters.
• Below this, the next major support is 92,500–93,000 USDT.
2. Deeper Support (in case of a significant correction):
• 90,000 USDT
• 79,000–80,000 USDT on the daily timeframe.

Major Resistances:
1. 98,300–99,000 USDT:
• A key zone for short stop executions and AVWAP High on lower timeframes.
2. 101,800–103,400 USDT:
• Significant resistance based on 4H / 1D Auto AVWAP High.
3. 104–105,000 USDT:
• Beyond this level, BTC would be testing the upper range of a potential daily Bollinger channel.

Final Recommendations & Summary

Current Market Conditions:
• The market is technically bullish in the medium term (ISPD > 0.5, RSI > 50, Mason’s Line > SMA).
• However, caution is needed as:
• The 4H HPI is in the overbought zone.
• ETF outflows are increasing.
• Significant liquidation clusters exist around 95k and 98k.

Preferred Scenario:
• Wait for one of two confirmations:
1. A pullback to ~95k, with a buy setup if a positive divergence forms on HPI / RSI.
2. A confirmed breakout above 98–99k with strong volume, signaling a potential long trade for the short to medium term.
• On a broader horizon (8H–12H–1D), the market may still form a corrective structure (A-B-C), pushing towards 104k before dropping again.
• Beware of a potential “false breakout” if BTC rises too quickly without a retracement.

Operational Conclusion:
• The 8H or 12H timeframe remains the best for trading.
• As long as BTC oscillates between 95k (support) and 98–99k (resistance), avoid overexposure.
• A confirmed breakout above 99–100k could lead to an acceleration toward 102–104k, but be cautious of a fake breakout.
• If BTC drops below 95k, it could trigger long liquidations, pushing the price toward 92k or even 90k, where additional supports exist.

Final Note:
• The overall trend remains bullish, but short- to medium-term caution is advised.
• ETF flows, heatmaps, and open interest indicate that the market remains highly sensitive to stop hunts in the 95–100k zone.

Trade wisely and manage risk carefully!