BTC: Do the bulls need some good news?

14 mar 2021

As BTC continues its epic parabolic bull run, it appears to be meeting significant levels of resistance.

Can it break out and hold above 62k? Will it roll back and touch the neckline of the W formation at 51k before returning to the upside? Or can an even greater correction not yet be discounted, despite this latest rally?

BTC's current ascent appears stronger than January, demolishing the 0.786 retracement level on the 21 February downside impulse. But a confluence of strong resistance also appears present, both on the Primary degree level, compounded by continued resistance at the Supercycle degree.

Who bought the dip? 08 February was when TSLA announced having bought 1.5bn in BTC. This helped spur a strong break to the upside. Will we see another major player announce having bought in?

Note the RSI.

25 mar 2021

Uwaga

25 Mar 2021 19:27:41: High tension. How far down is BTC going to go? I can see three scenarios:
A) BTC is currently completing a large W formation, filling in a candle on the 0.618 retracement of the low to the high of the initial 21 February downside impulse. Precisely, I would expect a wick to $48,885, and a strong bounce to the upside.
B) BTC is not stopping at the 0.618. Instead, it's forming an even larger W formation that could see the right side of the formation reached down to 45 or 44. This would entail filling in a candle all the way down to the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
C) It's even worse. Instead, we're seeing a very large supercycle degree correction down to 37 or 38.
Very difficult to predict.
6bn in options expire tomorrow on Deribit and with the CME. On 28 January, when the same happened (with less volume), BTC got a solid push to the upside. But 6bn is small compared to the total market cap of BTC.
BTC is overdue to check in with its EMAs. On the daily chart, it is near to touching the 50 EMA (more or less on the 0.618 Fibonacci level). Is this enough?
Anecdotally, watching recent price action, BTC, in my view, has lost some steam. Every inch forward is hard fought. Does make me wonder where, really, is the top of the current bull run.

26 mar 2021

Uwaga

26 Mar 2021 03:10:14: On the daily timeframe, we’re just now getting a flash of a 10/21 EMA crossover, and this hasn’t happened to the downside since 26 January. Nonetheless, it was short lived then, and marked the bottom of that retracement. Using a simple Fibonacci from the low of the initial 21 February downside impulse to the next ATH, we can see that BTC is currently ranging in the 0.618 level. I expect a full candle body on the daily to fill in on that level, possibly wicking down halfway into the 0.786 below, at around 48.5. The full body on the 0.618 line would complete the massive W formation BTC formed, with the neckline right on that line. One reason I don’t expect to see 45, which the descending wedge pattern from the last ATH to now would suggest, is tomorrow's options expiries, which, if January is repeated, will give BTC a push to the upside. It’s not impossible that we see a bounce and BTC then rolls over to revisit 45, or even lower. The alt total market cap is begging for a double tap retest of the previous ATH, now turned support. This could transpire if BTC reaches down to 40k or even lower. At this point, honestly, I hope it’s all over. It’s been a long month. There is still uncertainty, but if you look at the 10/21 EMA crossover in January, one might lean towards cautious optimism, after 48.8 is tapped in the coming hours.

26 mar 2021

Uwaga

26 Mar 2021 10:51:35: Interesting. The 10/21 EMA crossover flashed but didn't confirm: we have a move to the upside instead. Deribit will have expired, but the CME remains, at 4pm GMT. Is this a fake out? Will bears try to push the price back down, or is it all over? 44k was supposedly the "maximum pain" point of these expiring options, but we're nowhere near that currently (we're at 53.5 was I'm writing this). Is it over? Are we done with this damn correction now?

31 mar 2021

Uwaga

31 Mar 2021 15:20:32: Interesting to watch today's rapid drop from 59.8k to 56.7k, touching the 10 EMA on the daily chart. The last time BTC did this kind of liquidity grab during an upside movement was 8 February when, curiously enough, TSLA announced its 1.5bn BTC buy. While there was a long wick as BTC passed the 0.786 of the Fibonacci retracement on the 21 February downside impulse (10 March), BTC today had to make this grab even as it only touched the 0.786, which it hasn't yet broken through. BTC is losing momentum on the macro level. In other news, the low from the previous ATH came in at around the 0.5 Fibonacci of the 21 February downside impulse, so we can probably expect that the next lowest low from BTC's hike to 65K, which should be its next higher high, will be 56k.