Bitcoin 4hr analysis 12-20-2020
Good Sunday to you all. Im finally back from my little get away and decided to take a look at what is going on with the charts. After spending 2 days ignoring the charts its sure nice to come back to 24k BTC. 2020 has been such a solid year in terms of growth for Bitcoin. I think it has a lot to do with the US printing massive amounts of USD to pay for the 1st stimulus and the 2nd one that is likely to be in the cards. With that 2nd stimulus we may see a reduced burden on people exiting positions in BTC to pay taxes etc. If they get this 600 USD + we may see people using that vs removing their BTC during a bull run. That is easier said than done. Anyways lets take a look at the charts today.
The 4hr is showing us moving sideways pretty much through the weekend. I mean we have increased as far as price but the weekend has largely been uneventful. As most weekends are. One high point was we made a new ATH around 24300. Who would have thought we would be at this level back in March? I know I had my doubts. But I bought plenty in March because when hasnt BTC bounced back? The dip in March wasnt very technical. I mean the drop occurred due to extenuating circumstances (Covid and the side effects) So its not like you have a covid indicator. I remember China had announced a large drop in oil use and that caused the bottom to fall out of numerous markets. Bitcoin included. Also the stock market took a pretty decent hit. But Bitcoin lost over 50% on the drop while the stock market was closer to 30% if I remember correctly. Oil dropped to nil. Now oil is around 50 USD so it has been slowly recovering. Not yet back to pre covid levels. That is understandable. Not as many people driving along with industry suffering. But the stock market recovered to pre covid levels in no time. Bitcoin did even better than pre covid levels and from March 13th through today we have seen a 6X+ increase in the price. That means if you put in 1k in March you now have 6k. Not too shabby....
The weekend usually is pretty boring and this is no exception. I know we busted that ATH but just barely and I expect a retrace eventually. I dont want to bet against the bulls at this time so I will let my stop loss do the dirty work. But the way things look we may just end 2020 on a strong note. With the craziness in politics in the US many external factors will likely effect the price of Bitcoin. I like it better when its mainly technical data I need to analyze but when you throw politics and a pandemic into the mix things get a bit sticky. But starting 2020 above 20k would be great. Especially if we can hold onto these gains into the next administration (Whomever it may be) Im not going to discuss politics because I hate it. I dont care who wins or who lost. I care about Bitcoin and my profit. So please do not take my mentions of politics as an open invitation for a debate. LOL
I drew a small trend that is slightly ascending in nature. I see we have been respecting it for the weekend but keep an eye on things in a few hours. 3.5 hours to be exact. The weekly will close then and we may see some movement. Maybe not. I see a small possible gap on the chart that would be below the candles at this time. I would suspect we could fill that gap while maintaining the trend I drew, as the gap is pretty small. There are numerous gaps below us and people keep asking me about them. Yes I do know they are there and they do slightly concern me. Im still learning the science behind gaps and not all of them fill right away. I believe there has been a gap on the chart for over 2 years at this point so it can happen folks. I believe we have around 4-7 gaps below us at various levels and I need to take another looks. I think we have one around 3500 and one around 6-7k maybe 7600. One around 16k. There are plenty more and I am going off of memory (my memory is the worst memory ever) so please forgive me if I am a bit off. I pay attention to gaps as most fill within 24 hours of posting on the CME which is a quick easy trade (most of the time)
As Monday draws near so does 2021. No halving this year but we have seen the results from the halving of 2020. If you have doubts about a post halving pump I have 3 examples of the halving occurring and then approximately 6 months later we spiked. This year we saw an approximate 4x increase from the price at halving and I think the first halving was even better than that. Again I am going off memory so please dont hang me if my info is off. I do know halvings have caused pumps. All 3. That is all we have to go off of and it sucks there isnt more data but the halvings, by design, should be more bullish each time. We cut the supply in half for new BTC each halving. With that in mind if you look at the amount of BTC to be produced after the next halving event it will be 3.125 or something like that. Per block that is so every ten mins (average). This is a trickle compared to the first halving which saw BTC reduce from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block. Satoshi was absolutely brilliant with this simple yet effective design. New supply is reduced and the demand grows. Those that take advantage of this knowledge should be up on their investment.
I could go on all day about BTC. I love free money and if you look at the US dollar it is in shambles when compared to sound money like Bitcoin. Institutions are buying it up like candy now. I have heard that there is no sign of them slowing down the buying either even though BTC is well over 20k. This tells me a lot. It tells me people that are in charge of investing these multi billion dollar companies money is bullish on BTC. These guys are hired by these multi billion dollar corporations to increase their holdings through investments and Bitcoin has obviously become a real possibility for big companies when back in 2017 I remember companies laughing at the prospect of Bitcoin. We have Paypal. We have Grayscale. There are more trust me. But from what I hear these 2 entities are buying up Bitcoin almost as fast as it can be mined. I dont think they will buy forever but its certainly a good reason for this bull run too. People hear Paypal is going to offer BTC and it all of a sudden becomes an option to millions of people that use the service (be it custodial or not) But this should speak volumes to the average investor. If Grayscale is willing to buy up BTC at these levels they expect Bitcoin to go much higher than 24300 believe me. Just something to think about.
Im sorry I didnt get to share an analysis yesterday. I never feel right if we dont all start the day off with my analysis. I was going to skip today too but we got home earlier than expected so I thought what the hell. I was down in Bracketville Tx which is a stones throw from the border. We even got stopped by border patrol at a station (Everyone had to pull over for inspection) as we were so close to the border. Drug dogs and the works. But they let me and my dad out pretty easily. I saw an old military bunker from WW2 down there where we were fishing. Just had a great time with my dad. Hes getting up there in age so I gotta take advantage of this kind of stuff. We also golfed. Just 9 holes but it was a lovely course. Not the best shape but nice scenery and a gorgeous river that was soooo clear. I walked around with a metal detector too. LOL. Found one penny. Oh well. Better luck next time I guess. Tomorrow is Monday and its time to see if the markets are ready to continue the move up the chart or if the bears will finally get their moment in the sun. Im hoping the bulls can stomp the bears for the remainder of the year. But only time will tell. In the mean time I hope you all have a great Sunday or what is left of it. Make good choices my friends. And always remember....... WTFDIK????
The 4hr is showing us moving sideways pretty much through the weekend. I mean we have increased as far as price but the weekend has largely been uneventful. As most weekends are. One high point was we made a new ATH around 24300. Who would have thought we would be at this level back in March? I know I had my doubts. But I bought plenty in March because when hasnt BTC bounced back? The dip in March wasnt very technical. I mean the drop occurred due to extenuating circumstances (Covid and the side effects) So its not like you have a covid indicator. I remember China had announced a large drop in oil use and that caused the bottom to fall out of numerous markets. Bitcoin included. Also the stock market took a pretty decent hit. But Bitcoin lost over 50% on the drop while the stock market was closer to 30% if I remember correctly. Oil dropped to nil. Now oil is around 50 USD so it has been slowly recovering. Not yet back to pre covid levels. That is understandable. Not as many people driving along with industry suffering. But the stock market recovered to pre covid levels in no time. Bitcoin did even better than pre covid levels and from March 13th through today we have seen a 6X+ increase in the price. That means if you put in 1k in March you now have 6k. Not too shabby....
The weekend usually is pretty boring and this is no exception. I know we busted that ATH but just barely and I expect a retrace eventually. I dont want to bet against the bulls at this time so I will let my stop loss do the dirty work. But the way things look we may just end 2020 on a strong note. With the craziness in politics in the US many external factors will likely effect the price of Bitcoin. I like it better when its mainly technical data I need to analyze but when you throw politics and a pandemic into the mix things get a bit sticky. But starting 2020 above 20k would be great. Especially if we can hold onto these gains into the next administration (Whomever it may be) Im not going to discuss politics because I hate it. I dont care who wins or who lost. I care about Bitcoin and my profit. So please do not take my mentions of politics as an open invitation for a debate. LOL
I drew a small trend that is slightly ascending in nature. I see we have been respecting it for the weekend but keep an eye on things in a few hours. 3.5 hours to be exact. The weekly will close then and we may see some movement. Maybe not. I see a small possible gap on the chart that would be below the candles at this time. I would suspect we could fill that gap while maintaining the trend I drew, as the gap is pretty small. There are numerous gaps below us and people keep asking me about them. Yes I do know they are there and they do slightly concern me. Im still learning the science behind gaps and not all of them fill right away. I believe there has been a gap on the chart for over 2 years at this point so it can happen folks. I believe we have around 4-7 gaps below us at various levels and I need to take another looks. I think we have one around 3500 and one around 6-7k maybe 7600. One around 16k. There are plenty more and I am going off of memory (my memory is the worst memory ever) so please forgive me if I am a bit off. I pay attention to gaps as most fill within 24 hours of posting on the CME which is a quick easy trade (most of the time)
As Monday draws near so does 2021. No halving this year but we have seen the results from the halving of 2020. If you have doubts about a post halving pump I have 3 examples of the halving occurring and then approximately 6 months later we spiked. This year we saw an approximate 4x increase from the price at halving and I think the first halving was even better than that. Again I am going off memory so please dont hang me if my info is off. I do know halvings have caused pumps. All 3. That is all we have to go off of and it sucks there isnt more data but the halvings, by design, should be more bullish each time. We cut the supply in half for new BTC each halving. With that in mind if you look at the amount of BTC to be produced after the next halving event it will be 3.125 or something like that. Per block that is so every ten mins (average). This is a trickle compared to the first halving which saw BTC reduce from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block. Satoshi was absolutely brilliant with this simple yet effective design. New supply is reduced and the demand grows. Those that take advantage of this knowledge should be up on their investment.
I could go on all day about BTC. I love free money and if you look at the US dollar it is in shambles when compared to sound money like Bitcoin. Institutions are buying it up like candy now. I have heard that there is no sign of them slowing down the buying either even though BTC is well over 20k. This tells me a lot. It tells me people that are in charge of investing these multi billion dollar companies money is bullish on BTC. These guys are hired by these multi billion dollar corporations to increase their holdings through investments and Bitcoin has obviously become a real possibility for big companies when back in 2017 I remember companies laughing at the prospect of Bitcoin. We have Paypal. We have Grayscale. There are more trust me. But from what I hear these 2 entities are buying up Bitcoin almost as fast as it can be mined. I dont think they will buy forever but its certainly a good reason for this bull run too. People hear Paypal is going to offer BTC and it all of a sudden becomes an option to millions of people that use the service (be it custodial or not) But this should speak volumes to the average investor. If Grayscale is willing to buy up BTC at these levels they expect Bitcoin to go much higher than 24300 believe me. Just something to think about.
Im sorry I didnt get to share an analysis yesterday. I never feel right if we dont all start the day off with my analysis. I was going to skip today too but we got home earlier than expected so I thought what the hell. I was down in Bracketville Tx which is a stones throw from the border. We even got stopped by border patrol at a station (Everyone had to pull over for inspection) as we were so close to the border. Drug dogs and the works. But they let me and my dad out pretty easily. I saw an old military bunker from WW2 down there where we were fishing. Just had a great time with my dad. Hes getting up there in age so I gotta take advantage of this kind of stuff. We also golfed. Just 9 holes but it was a lovely course. Not the best shape but nice scenery and a gorgeous river that was soooo clear. I walked around with a metal detector too. LOL. Found one penny. Oh well. Better luck next time I guess. Tomorrow is Monday and its time to see if the markets are ready to continue the move up the chart or if the bears will finally get their moment in the sun. Im hoping the bulls can stomp the bears for the remainder of the year. But only time will tell. In the mean time I hope you all have a great Sunday or what is left of it. Make good choices my friends. And always remember....... WTFDIK????
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