US100 CORRECTIONS OVERLAYED ON BTC + DECOUPLING + MAJOR PRICES
Recently I updated a NASDAQ/US100 chart that was playing out an ABC scenario over the past month (see related links for more info).
To put it simply, two major situations I see as possibilities on the US100 chart are
- An inverse H&S
- A macro ABC corrective wave
Given
BTC price action is coupled with US100 price action at the moment, these patterns would also occur on the BTC chart, which I have mirrored here. HOWEVER, it also presents the perfect and very dramatic opportunity for crypto to decouple from traditional stock markets over the next few weeks by BTC following the inverse H&S (or rally before then) whilst the entire global stock market continues to correct.
Should this happen and we turn bullish:
- Returning to 46k to 53k as a trading zone
- A (somewhat unprecedented) rally to the ATH & Price Roof A (Plotted from the top DAILY wicks of 13th April 2021 + 10th November 2021)
With that said, the inclination for BTC to continue to follow US100 and the current political turmoil pertaining to Russia is high. In this case, BTC will just continue to follow US100 on a slow ABC macro wave until Q3/Q4 with a potential Christmas rally (War is hard in the winter)
This leaves us with the following key areas in a bearish only situation.
- 35k trend floor (Plotted from the bottoms wicks of 22nd July 2021 + 24th Jan 2022)
- 28k to 34k as a major consolidation zone with two previous trading ranges during (Jan 21 - Feb 21 + May 21 - July 21) as well as key wick bottoms.
- 25k as the next trend floor (Plotted from the bottom wicks of 20th March 2020 + 21st Sep 2020)
- 16k to 20k as the range at which a number of institutional funds entered the space (Grayscale entries, etc)
- 6k to 12k as a major liquidity range over the past 5 years
- 4.7k as the final and worst-case possible trend floor (plotted from the bottom WEEKLY wicks of 11th Sep 2017 + 10th Dec 2018 + 9th March 2020)
Of course, I could be completely wrong and we just go sideways till Christmas. Who knows!
To put it simply, two major situations I see as possibilities on the US100 chart are
- An inverse H&S
- A macro ABC corrective wave
Given
BTC price action is coupled with US100 price action at the moment, these patterns would also occur on the BTC chart, which I have mirrored here. HOWEVER, it also presents the perfect and very dramatic opportunity for crypto to decouple from traditional stock markets over the next few weeks by BTC following the inverse H&S (or rally before then) whilst the entire global stock market continues to correct.Should this happen and we turn bullish:
- Returning to 46k to 53k as a trading zone
- A (somewhat unprecedented) rally to the ATH & Price Roof A (Plotted from the top DAILY wicks of 13th April 2021 + 10th November 2021)
With that said, the inclination for BTC to continue to follow US100 and the current political turmoil pertaining to Russia is high. In this case, BTC will just continue to follow US100 on a slow ABC macro wave until Q3/Q4 with a potential Christmas rally (War is hard in the winter)
This leaves us with the following key areas in a bearish only situation.
- 35k trend floor (Plotted from the bottoms wicks of 22nd July 2021 + 24th Jan 2022)
- 28k to 34k as a major consolidation zone with two previous trading ranges during (Jan 21 - Feb 21 + May 21 - July 21) as well as key wick bottoms.
- 25k as the next trend floor (Plotted from the bottom wicks of 20th March 2020 + 21st Sep 2020)
- 16k to 20k as the range at which a number of institutional funds entered the space (Grayscale entries, etc)
- 6k to 12k as a major liquidity range over the past 5 years
- 4.7k as the final and worst-case possible trend floor (plotted from the bottom WEEKLY wicks of 11th Sep 2017 + 10th Dec 2018 + 9th March 2020)
Of course, I could be completely wrong and we just go sideways till Christmas. Who knows!
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