From Inception to Present: Our Crypto Model's Trades to Date

20 maj

Introduction

In this idea, we'll analyze the performance of our crypto trend model by breaking down each individual trade made since it went live on 27th July 2023. We'll delve into key market events that occurred around these trades and the run-up gains or drawdown avoidance achieved by the model.

Trade Breakdown

1. Short Signal - July 27, 2023
   

   Trade Outcome:
   
   Date: July 27, 2023
   Signal: Short📉
   
   Market Context:
   Event: In July 2023, Bitcoin faced a significant resistance around 30K, leading to a sharp rejection and subsequent price drop. This resistance level was critical, and the rejection marked the start of a downturn​.
   Performance: The short signal successfully captured the decline, gaining almost 15% at it's climax on just Bitcoin alone. The model's entry just before the major resistance test was well-timed.
   

2. Long Signal - September 19, 2023
   

   Trade Outcome:
   
   Date: September 19, 2023
   Signal: Long📈
   
   Market Context:
   Event: By mid-September, Bitcoin found solid support around $25,000 after a volatile summer. This support level triggered a significant bounce, making it a prime entry point for a long position​.
   Performance: The long signal capitalized on the bounce from $25,000, leading to a max run-up of 80% as Bitcoin rallied. Holding positions on altcoins in confluence with this signal would have likely yielded at least twice of what was gained on Bitcoin.
   

3. Cash Signal - January 15, 2024
   

   Trade Outcome:
   
   Date: January 15, 2024
   Signal: Cash💰
   
   Market Context:
   Event: Early January saw a recovery in Bitcoin prices driven by positive macroeconomic signals, such as slowing inflation. However, regulatory pressures and market volatility prompted caution​​. This pullback was also likely due to the Bitcoin ETFs Launch having a "sell the news" narrative.
   Performance: The cash signal helped avoid drawdowns of up to -10.61% and even more on altcoins during a period of increased market uncertainty and regulatory challenges.
   

4. Long Signal - January 30, 2024
   

   Trade Outcome:
   
   Date: January 30, 2024
   Signal: Long📈
   
   Market Context:
   Event:The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024 significantly boosted market sentiment. This approval was a pivotal event, sparking a bullish trend right after a small retracement.
   Performance: The long signal leveraged the positive sentiment and regulatory clarity, benefiting from the ensuing price surge and experiencing a max run-up of almost 72% on Bitcoin.
   

5. Cash Signal - April 13, 2024
   

   Trade Outcome:
   
   Date: April 13, 2024
   Signal: Cash💰
   
   Market Context:
   Event:April 2024 witnessed mixed signals with regulatory updates and market corrections. The Financial Stability Board's new regulatory framework added to the cautious market sentiment​. And with added FUD coming from Iran's attacks on Israel, the prices of not just crypto but other assets such as stocks started to tumble.
   Performance: The cash signal once again helped sidestep market turbulence, preserving gains from earlier trades, essentially avoiding up to -11.51% of drawdowns.
   

6. Long Signal - May 17, 2024
   

   Trade Outcome:
   
   Date: May 17, 2024
   Signal: Long📈
   
   Market Context:
   Event:As of May 2024, the crypto market showed resilience with new institutional interest and advancements in blockchain technology. This renewed interest provided a solid foundation and confluence for a long position
   Performance: As the signal came in just 3 days ago as of writing, we will update on the performance of this signal at a later date.
   

Conclusion

The crypto trend model demonstrated robust performance by effectively navigating through various market conditions and key events. Each and every trade has been overwhelmingly successful, and the model's signals is expected to continue capitalizing on gains and avoid major drawdowns in the future.

Stay tuned for more updates and detailed analyses on our crypto trend model's performance.