Bitcoin: A Consolidation Before the Next Move? Complete Analysis

In this post, I will present:
1. A cross-analysis of my customized technical indicators (ISPD Div Pro, MTFTI, OI LIQMAP, HPI, BB/RSI_DIV, Koncorde Divergence [H32], Auto AVWAP, Mason’s Line).
2. A perspective on the current market, identifying critical zones and possible scenarios for Bitcoin.

The goal is to provide a comprehensive overview of the technical situation and the dynamics influencing price movements.

1) Detailed Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)

1.1 Major Support and Resistance Zones
• Bitcoin is currently trading within a range of 93k to 97k USDT, a zone that limits price movement and reflects a market contraction period.
• The Auto AVWAP (Anchored VWAP) highlights two major levels:
• HiAVWAP around 99k–102k USDT, acting as a dynamic resistance.
• LoAVWAP near 95k–97k USDT, serving as a key support.
• The compression of Bollinger Bands on 4H, 8H, and 1D suggests a probable increase in volatility. A breakout above 100k–102k would signal a strong bullish continuation, while a drop below 95k, then 92.5k, could lead to a deeper retracement.

1.2 Trends and Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
• The MTFTI (Multi-TimeFrame Trend Indicator) reveals a hesitant market:
• The 1D and 1W timeframes remain bullish.
• The 2H, 4H, and sometimes 6H turn red, indicating short-term weakness.
• This divergence suggests a lateral consolidation where the overall trend is bullish, but immediate momentum is slowing, preventing a clear breakout.

1.3 Complementary Indicators

ISPD Div Pro
• Analyzes the gap between normalized price and investor sentiment.
• Across most timeframes, the value ranges between 0.3 and 0.7, indicating that the market is neither in euphoria nor extreme panic.
• In the short term (2H/4H), Investor Satisfaction can be low (<0.3), which often signals potential accumulation if confirmed by other indicators.

Mason’s Line
• Normalizes investor satisfaction.
• A score close to 0 signals an interesting entry point, while a score near 1 indicates overheating.
• On 2H/4H, Satisfaction is high (0.7–0.75) → potential overbought conditions.
• On Daily (1D), it fluctuates between 0.5 and 0.6, which remains moderate and supports a continued bullish trend.

HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index)
• Measures buying/selling pressure based on capital flows.
• HPI ≈ 60–80 on 2H/4H: high level, indicating strong demand but possible exhaustion.
• HPI ≈ 44 on 1D: balanced, showing that the market remains in consolidation without excess.

BB/RSI_DIV (RSI Bollinger & Divergence)
• 2H and 4H → RSI is very high (70–90): Potential overbought condition.
• 12H and 1D → RSI around 55–60: Neutral to bullish zone.
• Intraday overbought conditions may lead to a short-term correction before the trend continues.

Koncorde Divergence [H32]
• “Azul” (strong hands) > “Verde” (retail) across multiple timeframes → sign of continued institutional support.
• However, when “Verde” turns negative, it indicates weakening bullish momentum and a risk of consolidation.

OI LIQMAP
• Identifies liquidation levels in derivative markets.
• Two critical zones:
• 95k–96k USDT: Support zone that has already pushed the price up.
• 100k–102k USDT: Strong resistance zone with many sell orders.

2) Global Market and Liquidity
• Declining speculative enthusiasm in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
• The contraction of Open Interest (OI) in derivatives indicates reduced leverage. This type of decline sometimes precedes prolonged consolidations or even corrections.
• Funding rates are decreasing, especially for high-risk assets like Solana and Memecoins, signaling fading bullish momentum in these segments.

3) Which Timeframe to Prioritize for Positioning?
• The best timeframes to monitor a decisive move are 4H and 8H.
• 2H → Too volatile, already overbought.
• 1D → Too slow to detect real-time breakouts.
• The compression of Bollinger Bands on 4H/8H/1D suggests that a strong move is imminent, but the direction remains uncertain.

4) Strategy and Possible Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation

➡️ Bullish confirmation if closing above 100–102k USDT with volume.
➡️ This would open the door to a test of 105–110k USDT.
➡️ In this case, BTC would confirm its exit from consolidation and re-enter price discovery mode.

Scenario 2: Correction Before Rebound

➡️ A rejection below 100k–102k followed by a return to 95–96k.
➡️ This zone remains a key support and could trigger a rebound if accumulation signs appear.
➡️ A drop below 92.5k would open the door to 89–90k USDT, a critical level corresponding to a major institutional entry threshold.

Scenario 3: Deeper Pullback

➡️ Losing 92.5k USDT = bearish acceleration toward 89–90k.
➡️ This level is the last defense before a risk of a deeper correction.
➡️ Below this level, the market could seek even lower supports in the long term.

5) Practical Recommendations

✅ Monitor breakout signals on 4H/8H.
✅ Avoid FOMO around 100k–102k without volume confirmation.
✅ If correction occurs, potential buy zone around 89–90k (major support).
✅ Avoid strong exposure to altcoins until Bitcoin confirms its direction.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal moment, fluctuating between 95k and 100k USDT.
Technical indicators and liquidity flows show a slowdown, but the underlying trend remains bullish.
The key levels to watch are 95k–96k (support) and 100k–102k (resistance).
A bullish breakout would confirm a move toward 105–110k, while a break below 92.5k could lead to 89k.
In any case, volatility ahead will be strong. Be prepared!