BTC/USD Analysis

11 paź 2019

Let's take another look at the state of the rally and subsequent correction over the past 6-7 months. Beginning in April the price began a parabolic move to 14000. We then began the volatile corrective period beginning late June. The bullish phycology had the masses thinking the large descending triangle would end with a break to the upside. However, at the end of the day, a descending triangle is a bearish structure. Additionally, there was still room left to drop before testing any of the key indicators (original trend line, 200 Daily MA, .618 Fib). This should have spelled a more bearish sentiment, but more often than not the masses move in the wrong direction.

Looking at the daily chart now paints a different picture. We have retraced ~40% from the 14000 high (standard correction for BTC), bounced off the .618 Fib, validated the original trend line started in April and are hugging the 200 Daily MA. The RSI is neutral and the MACD is posting a bullish crossover. The market also seemed to have little to no reaction to the denial of yet another Bitcoin ETF. These are are all very bullish indicators and if all hold I am confident the bull market will continue.

One small worrying indicator is that the 200 Daily MA is showing sings of actin as resistance over the past few days. For real confidence in the market to materialize, we need to close above the 200 Daily MA and break the upper trend line that has formed this large falling wedge. Seeing the price above 9500 in the coming weeks will be crucial and will essentially turn this corrective falling wedge (which has always been seen as bullish) into another bull flag in the history of Bitcoin.

In summation, if these indicators hold I will be very bullish and see 20000 in the near future.