ABC correction wave complete...back to bull impulse wave!
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The bulls aren't out of the woods yet, and have a lot of work to do to get the momentum going upward. But after a deep retrace almost exactly to the .618 retrace level, we are starting to see the momentum change. The downtrend channel (bracketed in black lines) has been broken with the last 2 4-Hour candles. I've adjusted my ABC waves to reflect the shallow A and B waves.
Above us, we are going to run into .5 fib level at 7150, plus the converging 50EMA and 200EMA above the next red resistance rectangle around 7300. Once we break that level, that is a good sign that we have seen the short term bottom and will continue up to 77XX with Wave 1 of the next bull impulse. I believe this battle between the red zone could take quite a while and may stagnate with indecision. So I would not enter any new trades until above the 7300 level and bull confirmations from more than one indicator show up. RSI is marking Higher Lows as well, so that is a good sign as well. Volumes need to start picking up to indicate belief in the market is back.
Anyone else have this wave count? I'll post another Daily chart snapshot below with a broader view of my idea.
Have a Great Day!
Above us, we are going to run into .5 fib level at 7150, plus the converging 50EMA and 200EMA above the next red resistance rectangle around 7300. Once we break that level, that is a good sign that we have seen the short term bottom and will continue up to 77XX with Wave 1 of the next bull impulse. I believe this battle between the red zone could take quite a while and may stagnate with indecision. So I would not enter any new trades until above the 7300 level and bull confirmations from more than one indicator show up. RSI is marking Higher Lows as well, so that is a good sign as well. Volumes need to start picking up to indicate belief in the market is back.
Anyone else have this wave count? I'll post another Daily chart snapshot below with a broader view of my idea.
Have a Great Day!
Uwaga
Uwaga
Well the volume never showed up for the bull bounce off the .618 fib level. After sitting on this level for a day, it finally broke through the red resistance rectangle and the .618 fib level like running off a cliff. Interestingly, the next real bounce came exactly at the .786 fib level. There is something about that Fibonacci sequence that just seems to work! So cool! Anyway, even though we got a good bounce at that level, it appears that another bear flag is forming and bears are ready to go even farther. As I said above, the bull impulse looked like it had started, but I mentioned that I wouldn't enter any trades until price got above 7300. It never did that, there was no confirmed trend change, so no money lost. But I must admit, the lower the price goes, the more excited I get about cheap BTC!
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