BTCUSD: Ugly Yes. Bear Market? Not Yet.
BTCUSD update: Now you know why we avoid buying into highs. Price never reached the overhead resistance zone in the 7500's and has retraced sharply. The best thing to do in a situation like this is stand aside.
At S.C., we evaluate everything in probabilities and follow best practices. It was clear that the risk was high as price got closer to the major overhead resistance between the 7500 and 7900 area. We do not pretend to know where the market is going, but we do prepare for scenarios based on how we measure risk. We sent out a more detailed chart to our members explaining this situation yesterday.
When faced with this kind of bearish momentum, there is nothing to do but let the market play out. Price needs to stabilize and find a support before any further evaluation can be made.
As for our portfolio, we still manage Bitcoin inventory and have no intention of selling it. We do plan to rotate out of some of the weaker alts and reinvest that capital back into this market. We share our strategey for that specific rebalancing process with our members.
The alts got seriously punished during this retrace. Many of them have been presenting structures that have clearly warned of further weakness way in advance. This is why we have been so vocal about having a good defense and waiting for better conditions. (Just look at Ethereum).
In summary, getting excited and reacting to fast moves in a market is not productive. The best thing to do is take a step back and let the market settle. As ugly as it looks, nothing moves in a straight line.
We anticipate price finding support around the 6K area. Based on the current structure, it can even probe slightly below the 5750 level and reverse sharply. Do not lose sight of the broader location during periods of dramatic price action. If anything this market can be establishing a very wide consolidation.
As long as price is trading above 4983, it is not that bearish over the long term. Just something to keep in mind when the "experts" start calling for "BTC 3K!" in a couple of hours.
At S.C., we evaluate everything in probabilities and follow best practices. It was clear that the risk was high as price got closer to the major overhead resistance between the 7500 and 7900 area. We do not pretend to know where the market is going, but we do prepare for scenarios based on how we measure risk. We sent out a more detailed chart to our members explaining this situation yesterday.
When faced with this kind of bearish momentum, there is nothing to do but let the market play out. Price needs to stabilize and find a support before any further evaluation can be made.
As for our portfolio, we still manage Bitcoin inventory and have no intention of selling it. We do plan to rotate out of some of the weaker alts and reinvest that capital back into this market. We share our strategey for that specific rebalancing process with our members.
The alts got seriously punished during this retrace. Many of them have been presenting structures that have clearly warned of further weakness way in advance. This is why we have been so vocal about having a good defense and waiting for better conditions. (Just look at Ethereum).
In summary, getting excited and reacting to fast moves in a market is not productive. The best thing to do is take a step back and let the market settle. As ugly as it looks, nothing moves in a straight line.
We anticipate price finding support around the 6K area. Based on the current structure, it can even probe slightly below the 5750 level and reverse sharply. Do not lose sight of the broader location during periods of dramatic price action. If anything this market can be establishing a very wide consolidation.
As long as price is trading above 4983, it is not that bearish over the long term. Just something to keep in mind when the "experts" start calling for "BTC 3K!" in a couple of hours.
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