bitcoin 2nd pre halving pump

13 wrz 2023

In the short history of bitcoin, its price usually pumped two times before the halving. I think many people currently focus too much on 2019/2020, which could be recency bias. I see 2020 as an outlier where the second pre halving pump was interrupted by a black swan event.

See yourself how bitcoin first rallys from the bear market lows and then has another leg before the halving.

2012

2016

2020


So I think higher prices are more likely than lower.
In case the price drops below 24k, I would expect a 2nd pump just from a lower level around 19k-21k.

24 paź 2023

Uwaga

looks good so far but i think it will be a ride on disbelief with some pullbacks inbetween. the target remains around 46k over the next months.

1 lis 2023

Uwaga

The btc price is moving like a magnet to the target, just faster than expected. Not complaining about it tho.

19 lis 2023

Uwaga

looks like btc is ready to make its move towards 46k, weekly, daily and 2h all turned bullish.

21 lis 2023

Uwaga

2h failed, seems like btc needs more time and we need more patience. once 38k breaks, btc should accelerate.

22 lis 2023

Uwaga

i am starting to think that if 38k breaks there is a chance to see a bigger rally than 46k because this 2nd pre-halving rally has the halving and etf being frontrunned vs just the halving in previous cycles so it could look something like this:

3 gru 2023

Uwaga

I think the 46k target is too low because like 2020 covid was an outlier to the downside, the etf is an outlier to the upside. Imo its more likely to go to ath before the etf which is likely to come on January 10th.

new idea is here:

9 sty

Uwaga

this idea reached the target. but this was before the etf news. so btc reached its target for the 2nd pre halving rally which should also have happened without the etf.