This pattern says $74,820 is top
Fun little observation: when measuring from bottom to top, each of the last two cycles has yielded 19.6% the rate of returns from its prior cycle. If that were to continue, it would put this cycle's top around $74,820.
A couple of caveats:
(1) The numbers will vary depending on where your top/bottom values come from. E.g. on Bitstamp, last cycle was 25% of its prior cycle's returns, as opposed to 19.6%. That can make a big difference when you extrapolate, so it would be foolish to think of $74,820 as a target from a trading perspective. For instance, if we use the 25% we saw on Bitstamp, that would put price above 95k. BUT, the 19.6% value comes from the TradingView BTCUSD index, which should be more accurate than looking at the data from any one particular exchange (derived from Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken and Mt.Gox).
(2) The 69k high that we already saw was dangerously close to this 75k projection, so it's certainly possible that we've topped, though I have reason to believe we haven't.
A couple of caveats:
(1) The numbers will vary depending on where your top/bottom values come from. E.g. on Bitstamp, last cycle was 25% of its prior cycle's returns, as opposed to 19.6%. That can make a big difference when you extrapolate, so it would be foolish to think of $74,820 as a target from a trading perspective. For instance, if we use the 25% we saw on Bitstamp, that would put price above 95k. BUT, the 19.6% value comes from the TradingView BTCUSD index, which should be more accurate than looking at the data from any one particular exchange (derived from Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken and Mt.Gox).
(2) The 69k high that we already saw was dangerously close to this 75k projection, so it's certainly possible that we've topped, though I have reason to believe we haven't.
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