BTC Praying For A Vaccine - Expecting A Tsunami '29 Style Crash

17 sie 2020

Here's the gamble - If someone comes up with a viable vaccine soon, (its already priced into the market), there wont be a major crash, although the reality of the timescale would most likely cause a correction. (Buy the rumour, sell the news). More likely is that first vaccine news will be negative and show up the reality that the politicians ignore that noone has ever yet produced a viable human corona virus vaccine. So to expect the first vaccine out of the 100 or so vaccines under trial to post a positive win wold be a bet you wouldnt take at the races. Negative fails of the first few reports will bring markets back to reality.

Reality is that the global depression currently underway will be years in recovery without a vaccine...and the markets will at some point decide to reflect this. How low the market drops will be reflected in the greed index that fuelled the bounce in the first place.

As for BTC, well the price will reflect the enhanced volatility you'd expect in an asset class one step ahead of Black Jack. The chart has always said we must go back to the origin..$1357 before any ALTs and whilst the wants and needs of miners, exchanges and whales will determine short term pumps and dumps to raise funds, I do not belive we will see any increase in retail interest or adoption until this happens.

Good news is that the perfect storm of a 1929-32 stock market crash will give the perfect time to allow this to happen and plan accordingly to accumulate all the coin that the suckers putting money into the market now will cough up at 6000, 3100 and below when we will see the final capitulation phase of the bear market and the start of the slow grind of a new bull market phase.

October is a good month for the start of this to happen..historically... 3rd quarter result disappointment plus the first vaccine disappointment should do the trick.

Good luck to all...
PS Did I mention the volume..lol...doesnt look good..